NBA Bet of the Day | March 27, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 202-133-3, +53.12
RECAP: Well, the team that I called the “Worst Team in the League” just trounced the Chicago Bulls IN Chicago to give us our first loser in a while in NBA of the Day history, but that’s why it pays to be a PRO Subscriber: we still go 2-1 on the day for an increase of .83 units. Depending on your unit size, that’s still some great profit. We’re up over 53 units on the season, and let’s look to continue that today in a big slate.

March 27th, 2024

The Pistons are taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight on the back of seven straight losses, and are gunning for a top-three pick in next year’s draft. The Wolves are setting the pace for themselves as they’ve been up-and-down over their last ten, but still are hitting wins in seven of their last ten games. These two teams clash with their stars questionable, but we’re going to assume that both players are playing in this game, and that this is where the total is going to sit. 

The Pistons are, simply put, away team overs machines. They are hitting the over by nearly five points in nearly sixty percent of away games this season, and were just recently blown out on the road to the New York Knicks, who hit the over quite easily. I could see something very similar happening tonight. 

Our Sharp Projections have this game pinned at O/U 217.5, and we’re getting it at a lowly 216, so we’re getting a point and a half of wiggle room. And while there are no money handles tools that fit my bill for tonight’s slate yet, this one is the closest we’ve got: we’re seeing 43% of the total bets on the over in this game, but 66% of the total money on this total hitting the over. That’s a difference of 23%, and is prime for what we look for when we’re looking to bet totals in the NBA. I don’t mind the betting percentage a little higher than our usual 40%, because it just means a little more of the public is on it. Could still be recommended as a public sharp play. 

Over their last five games, the Pistons are giving up 120 points per game - that essentially means that the Pistons just need to get to 100 to win here. While the T-Wolves will most likely set the pace here as the favorite by double digits, we just need some garbage time points to catapult us over this total towards the end of the game. The Wolves are allowing 104 over their last five, and that would indicate some success in the total in this game if these scores were able to be hit. 

Let’s take the over in Minnesota, despite a trend or two going against us. It isn’t a perfect bet, but it’s a bet that we’re going to take and ride because of our Sharp Projections. 

PICK: Detroit/Minnesota over 216

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