NBA Bet of the Day | March 16, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 187-124-3, +48.58
RECAP: Yesterday was another NBA of the Day winner, and we’re just so hot in these streets - nearly every time over the past month that I’ve written an article about a play, it cashes, and last night was no exception. The Nuggets played with their food a little bit, but we got the cash by the hook; I asked them to win by 11, and they did just that. They won by 11! Let’s get it today in another crazy big slate. 

March 16th, 2024

We’re taking on the Nationally-televised game on this loaded Saturday slate as the Golden State Warriors head to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers, who have been surging as of late. Lebron James, Anthony Davis, Stephen Curry, and Draymond Green are all projected to play, meaning that we’re going to be seeing a heavyweight fight from start to finish in this conference battle. 

In their last matchup, the Lakers took a beating against the Warriors, with Lebron James on the bench – and in their first matchup, we had a 145-144 all-time overtime classic with the Lakers coming out on top. Today, we need James and the crew to just win by two, and I think they’re playing their best ball of the season at the right time. They’re cursed against the Kings, but the Lakers have recently won great games against the Bucks, Timberwolves, and Thunder. The Dubs have been more wishy-washy as of late. 

This games doesn’t directly qualify for our Money Handles tool, but our Sharp Projections blow this one out of the water, and that’s the reason we’re taking it. Our predictive model says that this game should be a spread of -4.5 in favor of the Lakeshow, and we’re getting them at three points below that, at -1.5. That’s crazy wiggle room. Our Money Handles is close, too - we’re looking at 46% on the betting handle and over 90% on the money handle, giving us a difference of 46%. It’s more of a public play than I’d like, but truthfully the difference in the Sharp Projections is too good to pass up. 

They haven’t been the home favorite too often, in fact, the Lakers have only been the home favorite 24 times this season - but in those games, they’re winning by an average of five points per game in this scenario - which gives us plenty of room here to move around. And while away stadiums have been the Warriors’ bread and butter, regression is bound to hit at some point this season, just like we saw last season with this Warriors team. 

Let’s take the Lakers to win a close one, as Lebron and company typically love to thrive on the national stage. Lakers by two, and let’s make it two in a row. 

PICK: Los Angeles Lakers -1.5

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