Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (03/14/23)

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 3/11/23 RECAP: My TOTD was a dud, with Zubac not clearing his 8.5 scoring line (he scored 8… ugh), but the rest of our trends went pretty even if you were tailing. Brooklyn went 1-0 ATS, Huerter scored 28 last night to draw even at 1-1, Pacers Overs went 1-1, Barrett went 1-1, and the Lakers went Under in their only game. Another positive week, as we went 5-4 to bring our total since the end of the February to 31-19. Let’s look to go even MORE positive this week.

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY: One of the biggest spark plugs that has turned around the New York Knicks’ season is the trade for SG Josh Hart; the dude is a menace defensively, and makes a ton of plays that help his team out. His most important stat is his rebounding, being one of the best rebounding guards over a recent stretch; he’s never hit under seven rebounds in his last six games. His Consensus Rebounding Prop is at 6.5 in most books… he’s hit it every time in the past two weeks. Take Hart’s Rebounding Over, and don’t look back.

Other Trends:

1. The best ATS team is back at it again. Since SGA has come back for the Oklahoma City Thunder, they’re 5-1 ATS, and have even won five of their last six, too. They’ve got some tough games coming up against a streaky Brooklyn Team and Toronto later this week, but I love for them to cover these lines while everyone is healthy and they’re playing their best basketball of the season. Let’s ride with OKC ATS this week (and if you’re really feeling fun, let’s add ML there too!).

2. Over his last four, G/F Jimmy Butler is determined to bring his team into the playoffs. He’s averaging 31/6/3 in his last four, and he’s got the Grizzlies and Bulls this upcoming week, games that should be high-scoring and competitive while they fight for position. He’s hit his Over 23.5 Consensus Points Prop in each of his past five games (most of them easily), and I like for him to continue his scoring streak going into this week. Let’s take the Bigface Coffee CEO’s Points Over this week.

3. Houston, we have some surprising wins. Last night, the Rockets took down the top team in the East in the most surprising outcome of the season. A huge part of this is the recent stretch of PF Jabari Smith Jr., who is averaging 25/11/3 in his last three games against his opponents. This week, let’s rely on his rebounding numbers to continue (I think his scoring regresses to the mean), because SOMEONE on this Houston team has to come down with the ball. While his Consensus Rebounds Prop is at 7.5, he’s hit that Over in each of his past four games rather easily; Jabari should continue his rebounding success this week against the Lakers and Pels.

4. Seems like every time I go against this team, they turn around and prove me wrong, but let’s try it again. The Washington Wizards are 1-5 in their last six games, and have only covered in their solo win over that stretch. They aren’t scoring well and they aren’t stopping offenses - and while some may look at their schedule and see Detroit and feel good about it, I wouldn’t be so sure. They only won by two the last time they played, while the spread was -11 – tonight, it’s -12, and I just don’t see it. Let’s fade Washington ATS this week.

5. This is an Over-Bettor’s Heaven week. The Atlanta Hawks, the #2 Over percentage team, is playing Golden State (#3) and San Antonio (#4) this week. There’s no real analytics here – there are going to be a billion points scored this week. For Atlanta, the Over is 4-1 in their last five, and they’re going to be on a ton of rest for these games. Let’s take the Over in these games, and hope for a scoring bonanza in Atlanta.

RECAP:
TOTD: Hart Reb Over
Oklahoma City ATS
Butler Points Over
Smith Jr. Reb Over
Fade Washington ATS
Atlanta Total Points Over

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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