Anthony P's NBA Model November 23, 2022

Anthony P
As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.
Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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It's a huge stale in the NBA and the model likes the Pacers and Heat.

Indiana only lost twice in their last 10 and sports an 11-5 ATS record. they've been solid at home winning 6 of 9 and the model thinks that the wrong team is the favorite tonight. Minnesota is 20th in defense and will have issues stopping the Pacers 5th best offense this year. They also have issues covering against teams with a winning record covering only once in their last 8 and they are 0-6 ATS versus teams with a winning record over .600. Trust the model.

In Miami, both teams have issues with injuries. Beal and Morris are questionable. Butler is still out. After cleaning up all this mess with injuries the model has the Heat at -4. Based on aNET, aORTG and aDRTG this match-up is pretty even however the Heat faced better opponents based on their SOS. Momentum is what the difference maker can be. The wizards always seem to find a way to win. They won 7 of their last 10 including a 107-106 in OT in Miami 5 days ago. If Adebayo is back and Beal is out I like the Heat. The Wizards are thin at guard with some important injuries and the Heats is much better at home anyway.

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