San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Preview - October 22nd, 2022

Editor

Today's contest between the Phillies and the Padres pits The Sharp Model's 120th ranked SP (Mike Clevinger) against the 130th ranked SP (Noah Syndergaard). The rundown on Clevinger tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 36.9% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a slider (21.6%). Syndergaard is a sinker guy (31.4%) who brings a slider as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Clevinger deserves something like a 4.98 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 4.33. On that front, Syndergaard's ERA sits at 3.94 and his FIP at 3.83.

San Diego Padres Insights

  • The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst of all teams today.

  • Josh Bell is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Philadelphia (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

  • The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in the majors, per The Sharp Model.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • Noah Syndergaard has averaged 17.2 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 80th percentile.

  • Rhys Hoskins has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 17% rate last year has fallen off to 11.7% this season.

  • Rhys Hoskins has a high pull rate on his flyballs (35.9% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 47 games at home (+15.70 Units / 30% ROI)

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 away games (+8.45 Units / 31% ROI)

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 25% ROI)