Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Matchup Preview - September 30th, 2022

Editor

Friday evening the Pittsburgh Pirates battle against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. The Pirates offense will be led by Bryan Reynolds, who ranks as the #39th-best hitter in baseball according to The Sharp Model X. Given Bryan Reynolds's profile and today's matchup specifics, The Sharp Model X expects him to average a .311 wOBA, .244 AVG, and .10 HRs. On the other side, Paul Goldschmidt (The Sharp Model X's #10th hitter in MLB) will bolster the Cardinals lineup. He projects for a .345 wOBA, .258 AVG, and .15 HRs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

  • Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Johan Oviedo has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 9.8% more often this year (56%) than he did last season (46.2%).

  • Oneil Cruz is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of St. Louis (#1-best on the slate today).

  • Ke'Bryan Hayes has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.6%) and will be challenged by the game's 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

  • Jack Flaherty’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2328 rpm) has been significantly higher than than his seasonal rate (2257 rpm).

  • Tommy Edman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (70% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

  • The St. Louis Cardinals projected batting order today (.308 projected wOBA per The Sharp Model X) projects quite a bit worse than their .323 wOBA this year.

Betting Trends

  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 54 games at home (+12.60 Units / 14% ROI)

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 35 away games (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)

  • Paul DeJong has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)