Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Matchup Preview - September 30th, 2022


Friday evening the Pittsburgh Pirates battle against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. The Pirates offense will be led by Bryan Reynolds, who ranks as the #39th-best hitter in baseball according to The Sharp Model X. Given Bryan Reynolds's profile and today's matchup specifics, The Sharp Model X expects him to average a .311 wOBA, .244 AVG, and .10 HRs. On the other side, Paul Goldschmidt (The Sharp Model X's #10th hitter in MLB) will bolster the Cardinals lineup. He projects for a .345 wOBA, .258 AVG, and .15 HRs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

  • Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Johan Oviedo has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 9.8% more often this year (56%) than he did last season (46.2%).

  • Oneil Cruz is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of St. Louis (#1-best on the slate today).

  • Ke'Bryan Hayes has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.6%) and will be challenged by the game's 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

  • Jack Flaherty’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2328 rpm) has been significantly higher than than his seasonal rate (2257 rpm).

  • Tommy Edman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (70% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

  • The St. Louis Cardinals projected batting order today (.308 projected wOBA per The Sharp Model X) projects quite a bit worse than their .323 wOBA this year.

Betting Trends

  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 54 games at home (+12.60 Units / 14% ROI)

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 35 away games (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)

  • Paul DeJong has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)