Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Matchup Preview - October 8th, 2022


Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • Aaron Nola's fastball spin rate has risen 104 rpm this year (2302 rpm) over where it was last season (2198 rpm).

  • J.T. Realmuto has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last year's 94.8-mph figure.

  • Alec Bohm has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and will be challenged by the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

  • Miles Mikolas has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

  • Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#1-worst of all teams today).

  • The St. Louis Cardinals projected offense today (.310 projected wOBA via The Sharp Model X) projects quite a bit worse than their .322 wOBA this year.

Betting Trends

  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+11.45 Units / 16% ROI)

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 98 games (+16.78 Units / 15% ROI)

  • Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.40 Units / 50% ROI)