Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Matchup Preview - October 19th, 2022


The Phillies are scheduled to start Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA) against Padres starting pitcher Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38 ERA) on Wednesday. Aaron Nola recorded the win in his last outing, as the Phillies beat the Braves 9-1. He pitched 6 innings allowing 0 earned runs with 5 hits. He also recorded 6 strikeouts with 2 walks. The last time Blake Snell took the mound, he recorded a win as the Padres defeated the Dodgers 2-1. He finished with 5.1 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, while allowing 1 earned run on 5 hits. Today, Nola projects for 5.21 innings pitched with 2.2 ER, 4.7 hits, 5.1 strikeouts, and 1.3 walks, according to The Sharp Model. Meanwhile, The Sharp Model projects Snell's average outcome to be 4.92 IP, 2.2 ER, 4.0 H, 6.5 strikeouts, and 1.9 walks.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • Aaron Nola has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8.5 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

  • J.T. Realmuto has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last year's 94.8-mph average.

  • The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in the league, according to The Sharp Model.

San Diego Padres Insights

  • Blake Snell has relied on his change-up 5.1% less often this season (5%) than he did last season (10.1%).

  • Josh Bell is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Philadelphia (#3-best on the slate).

  • Jose Azocar has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.1%) and will be challenged by the game's 6th-deepest RF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 88 of their last 170 games (+11.15 Units / 6% ROI)

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 35 away games (+17.28 Units / 44% ROI)

  • Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.45 Units / 24% ROI)