MLB Bet of the Day | May 13, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 53-53-3, -2.42u
RECAP: I mean listen, I guess I asked for it yesterday. I asked for Kyle Hendricks to beat me, and while the Pirates had the lead in some spots of the game, it was pretty much a wrap once extra innings came into play as the Pittsburgh bullpen really did a number on us. We go 1-3 yesterday to drop just over two units, and we’re once again climbing out of a hole. Feels like every time that we make progress, we take two steps back - but we’ll get back on track today. 

May 13th, 2024

The NL East is already a gauntlet, with multiple games being locked in with each other, including last night’s matchup between the Braves and Mets – every game is hard-fought. Tonight, we have the Phillies coming to New York to take on the Mets at home in the first game of their series, and we’re going to rely on these offenses to take hold tonight. 

Cristopher Sanchez has been a great story for the Phillies, as he’s kept the ball in the ballpark and doesn’t get hit hard… at home. On the road is a different story, as his xBA and walk percentage both go up away from his home field, and he’s allowing a WHIP of 2.03 away from home. That means that, per inning, there are at least two batters per inning that have reached base in his twelve innings pitched on the road so far this season. He’s allowed four, three, and five runs in each of his road starts so far this season, and has yet to surpass five innings in any away game. Yikes! 

Sean Manaea, someone who we’ve bet against in the past, is a walk-machine and is at home for the Mets tonight. He’s walking twelve percent of batters this season and has a home WHIP of 1.50, being significantly worse at home than on the road. 

Plus, the Phillies are really, really good on the road. They get on base at a clip of 34%, and add Manaea’s wild-ness to the mix, and we’re looking at quite the number of baserunners. It’s all about cashing in those baserunners. 

Finally, both of these bullpens are gassed. The Phillies have about one available arm, and the Mets are looking at two… that means that they may lean on these starters, who struggle a whole lot in the later innings of games. In fact, Manaea has reached the sixth inning just twice this season, and in that inning, he has an ERA of 13.00 and has allowed three runs in that inning alone. Sanchez isn’t much different, sporting an ERA of 12.00 in the sixth inning. Even if we don’t get runs in the early stages of this game, let’s hold out for the later innings to see the bats explode. 

Let’s take the over in this NL East clash between two teams who need to start off their series right. The Phillies are ahead of the Mets, but some serious ground can be made up this evening; let’s just hope it involves some runs. 

PICK: Philadelphia / New York over 7.5

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