MLB Bet of the Day | March 31, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 4-6, -1.86u
RECAP: Again, we had another lost day where it feels a little like we’re JUST there, and then the rug gets pulled out from underneath us. It’s been volatile, with our only win of the day being on a Baltimore parlay that cashed literally in the first inning of that game. We’re trying to find some sustained success in the MLB, and I’m not wavering in my methods. Let’s get it today to get back to positive. 

March 31st, 2024

We’re moving into the AL Central for today’s pick, and it’s another total between two teams that have historically been low-scoring teams. Today, we’re going to hope that they continue that trend into this Sunday contest. 

On Easter Sunday, Eric Fedde and the Chicago White Sox are taking on Jack Flaherty and the Detroit Tigers, and I am very high on both of these pitchers to exceed expectations going into this season. Flaherty specifically has been a pitcher that has floated around and succeeded in some spots, and floundered in others, but we’ve seen him be able to sustain success with the Cardinals, and the AL Central is a totally different beast. 

Flaherty has absolutely dominated this White Sox lineup through his plate appearances against them, allowing an xBA of .131 and an actual batting average of .091. He’s been able to keep his walks down and his strikeout percentage is right at 30%, and this White Sox lineup isn’t the most potent you’ve seen in the world. Flaherty doesn’t get hit hard and while he finished last year on a rough note, he’s got a cakewalk of a beginning of the season, lined up today against the White Sox and next week against the Athletics. It should be a strong start to the season for him. He had a really strong spring training, and I’d like to see him build on it. 

Eric Fedde is the wild card in this matchup, as we haven’t been able to see sustained success out of him. He actually didn’t pitch at all last season in the MLB, but shined in the KBO, sporting an ERA at 2.00 and literally won their equivalent of a Cy Young award. We’ll look for him to build on his strong overseas campaign and translate it to the big leagues here in the States. 

Overall, we’re going to rely on these pitchers to have strong starts to their 2024 campaigns, and take the under 8.5 in this game. So many AL Central games tend to hit under, and we’re sticking with that trend today. 

PICK: Detroit / Chicago under 8.5

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