Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Matchup Preview - September 30th, 2022


The Miami Marlins enter the game as the 2nd ranked team per The Sharp Model X's Power Rankings and will battle the 13th ranked Brewers at American Family Field. The Marlins rank 2nd in MLB in steals and will likely lean on that speed in their attempt to win today. When the Brewers have found success this year, it's been through their power. They rank 3rd in baseball in home runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

  • Sandy Alcantara is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.7% GB% per The Sharp Model projections), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in American Family Field — the #7 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this game.

  • Miguel Rojas has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.

  • Avisail Garcia hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

  • It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Corbin Burnes must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 92.9% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

  • Projected catcher Omar Narvaez projects as an elite pitch framer, according to The Sharp Model projection system.

Betting Trends

  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 19 games (+1.05 Units / 5% ROI)

  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 42 away games (+2.75 Units / 5% ROI)

  • Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+10.85 Units / 39% ROI)