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Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Matchup Preview - October 15th, 2022


Los Angeles's first baseman Freddie Freeman looks to continue his strong season as he takes on Manny Machado and the Padres. This season Freddie Freeman is batting .322 with 22 home runs, 118 runs, 101 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases. Today he's projected to bat 2nd in the lineup with a The Sharp Model X projection of .255 Avg, .307 wOBA and .13 HRs. On the Padres side, Manny Machado has shined this year (.296 Avg, 34 HRs, 102 Rs, 107 RBIs, & 9 SBs). He's projected to bat 8th and The Sharp Model X projects his average performance today as a .286 wOBA, and .11 HRs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

  • Tyler Anderson has used his change-up 7.5% more often this season (32%) than he did last year (24.5%).

  • Max Muncy's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 97.1-mph EV last season has decreased to 95.1-mph.

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup profiles as the best on the slate.

San Diego Padres Insights

  • Joe Musgrove's 2557 rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 99th percentile among SPs.

  • Manny Machado has been lucky this year, posting a .377 wOBA despite The Sharp Model X estimating his true talent level to be .342 — a .035 deviation.

  • The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in MLB, per The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 40 of their last 73 games at home (+11.40 Units / 14% ROI)

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 94 of their last 159 games (+23.75 Units / 12% ROI)

  • Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 22 games at home (+7.95 Units / 30% ROI)


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