Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox Matchup Preview - August 16th, 2022

Editor

Tuesday evening the Houston Astros battle against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Astros offense will be led by Yordan Alvarez, who ranks as the #4th-best hitter in baseball according to THE BAT X. Given Yordan Alvarez's profile and today's matchup specifics, THE BAT X expects him to average a .367 wOBA, .248 AVG, and .25 HRs. On the other side, Jose Abreu (THE BAT X's #29th hitter in MLB) will bolster the White Sox lineup. He projects for a .341 wOBA, .262 AVG, and .18 HRs.

Houston Astros Insights

  • Justin Verlander has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 5.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

  • The Chicago White Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Yordan Alvarez can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

  • Houston's 89.2-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the best in the game: #7 overall.

Chicago White Sox Insights

  • Dylan Cease has used his slider 12.5% more often this year (41.9%) than he did last season (29.4%).

  • Leury Garcia has been unlucky this year, compiling a .225 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .277 — a .052 difference.

  • Andrew Vaughn has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games at home (+10.50 Units / 18% ROI)

  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 71 of their last 115 games (+19.25 Units / 13% ROI)

  • Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Over in 54 of his last 75 games (+20.70 Units / 13% ROI)