Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres Matchup Preview - September 30th, 2022


The Chicago White Sox enter the game as the 25th ranked team per The Sharp Model X's Power Rankings and will battle the 27th ranked Padres at Petco Park. The White Sox rank 4th in MLB in batting average and will likely lean on that hitting in their attempt to win today. When the Padres have found success this year, it's been through their bullpen, which ranks 6th in baseball according to The Sharp Model.

Chicago White Sox Insights

  • Davis Martin has been unlucky with his strikeouts this year, posting a 6.27 K/9 despite The Sharp Model estimating his true talent level to be 7.44 — a 1.17 K/9 disparity.

  • Leury Garcia is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of San Diego (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

  • Yoan Moncada hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

San Diego Padres Insights

  • Yu Darvish’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2487 rpm) has been a considerable increase over than his seasonal rate (2414 rpm).

  • Josh Bell has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (96% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.

  • The San Diego Padres (19 K%, according to The Sharp Model X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today.

Betting Trends

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.65 Units / 29% ROI)

  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.35 Units / 35% ROI)

  • Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Over in 74 of his last 111 games (+22.30 Units / 10% ROI)