Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Preview - October 15th, 2022


Atlanta's third baseman Austin Riley looks to continue his strong season as he takes on Kyle Schwarber and the Phillies. This season Austin Riley is batting .268 with 38 home runs, 90 runs, 94 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases. Today he's projected to bat 3rd in the lineup with a The Sharp Model X projection of .251 Avg, .355 wOBA and .23 HRs. On the Phillies side, Kyle Schwarber has shined this year (.213 Avg, 46 HRs, 102 Rs, 96 RBIs, & 10 SBs). He's projected to bat 4th and The Sharp Model X projects his average performance today as a .381 wOBA, and .22 HRs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

  • The Sharp Model X projects Charlie Morton to throw 74 pitches today (least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

  • Robbie Grossman is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#1-worst of all teams on the slate).

  • Projected catcher Travis d'Arnaud projects as a good pitch framer, per The Sharp Model projection system.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • Noah Syndergaard has been unlucky with his strikeouts this year, posting a 6.35 K/9 despite The Sharp Model estimating his true talent level to be 7.08 — a 0.74 K/9 disparity.

  • Rhys Hoskins has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 17% rate last season has decreased to 11.7% this season.

  • The 15.4% Barrel% of the Philadelphia Phillies grades them out as the #9 club in MLB since the start of last season by this stat.

Betting Trends

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 54 games at home (+15.20 Units / 25% ROI)

  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 85 of their last 128 games (+21.25 Units / 9% ROI)

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 31 games (+11.50 Units / 26% ROI)