Free calculator
Poisson Distribution Calculator
Model goals, runs, or points from an average.
Enter an expected average (lambda) and a target to see the probability of exactly, at most, and more than that number.
P(exactly 3)21.38%
P(3 or fewer)75.76%
P(more than 3)24.24%
How is Poisson used in betting?
The Poisson distribution models how often a discrete event (goals, runs, points) happens given an average rate. Feed it a team’s expected goals and you get the probability of each scoreline — the backbone of pricing soccer, hockey, and totals markets.
Sharp App does this automatically across 100+ sportsbooks and apps — see the Proptimizer.
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