You will place correct bets that lose and incorrect bets that win. Both are a mathematical certainty, and neither feels the way it should. This session is about the gap between a good decision and a good outcome, why betting makes that gap harder to see than almost any other skill, and the one number that closes it.
What this session covers
The psychology underneath positive expected value betting: outcome bias, the habit of judging a decision by how it turned out; why a betting feedback loop is uniquely bad at teaching you anything; why a +3% edge feels like nothing on the night you place the bet. Then the reframe that makes the whole thing workable — grade the decision, not the result, which is exactly what closing line value does for you.
