The problem: a hot streak is not always a new skill level
An observed performance rate is a mixture of underlying ability, opportunity, opponents, and randomness. A team shooting unusually well over five games might be genuinely improved, unusually lucky, facing weaker opponents, or some combination. Regression toward the mean means that extremely noisy observations tend to be less extreme on a subsequent observation. It does not mean that a winning streak must end, nor that a player is “due” for a poor game.
