Anthony P's WNBA Model Aug 31, 2023

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This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR AUG 31, 2023

With the regular season winding down and the playoffs looming on the horizon, every game becomes crucial for teams jockeying for positioning. Let's dive into the latest trends and insights from the WNBA, focusing on key matchups and potential value picks.

Phoenix's Struggles Continue

Phoenix finds itself at the bottom of the league standings, struggling to find its footing. In their recent game against Atlanta, they were poised to play the role of spoilers and cover the spread as 8.5-point underdogs. Unfortunately, the Mercury came up short, losing by a margin of 18 points.

Connecticut Sun's Pursuit of Victory

The Connecticut Sun, on the other hand, have been more successful in their recent outings, winning 9 of their last 14 games. Positioned at the third seed, they are locked into playoff contention. Analyzing their performance, the Sun's ATS record indicates their consistency, with a 16-5 ATS record in Thursday games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four overall. These trends suggest that the Sun has been covering spreads and performing well against the odds.

Line Movement and Value Analysis

The upcoming matchup between the Connecticut Sun and the struggling Phoenix Mercury draws attention, especially as the lines shift. Retailer DraftKings initially opened the line at -9.5 for the Sun, but market markers adjusted it to -12.5. Currently, the line is inching closer to -13. This shift prompts us to analyze the potential value in the game.

Comparing various metrics and projections, we notice a discrepancy between the line and the expected performance. According to my power rankings, the line should be around -8, while the margin model indicates -11.5. The book's raw projection hovers around -9. Despite these differences, the line at -13 appears to offer an opportunity for value.

Finding Value in the Mercury

Interestingly, the recent performances of the Phoenix Mercury and their ATS margins suggest that the team is struggling by an average margin of 7.6 points in games where they haven't covered the spread. The recent string of losses indicates a lack of competitiveness on the court. It's worth noting that the book's line adjustment may be influenced by these trends, creating a potential overestimation of the Sun's advantage.

Furthermore, the Phoenix Mercury's overall demeanor has shown signs of resignation. Even experienced players like Diana Taurasi, who went scoreless in her recent game, demonstrate a sense of disappointment. As the losses pile up, it's apparent that the Mercury are at a point of conceding.

The Sun's Opportunity to Shine

While the Connecticut Sun may have already secured their playoff spot and the third seed, there's no reason for them to take their foot off the gas. The opportunity to face a struggling Mercury team presents a chance for the Sun to build momentum and further solidify their position in the playoffs.

As the regular season reaches its climax, the WNBA landscape offers a mix of challenges and opportunities. The shifting lines and value potential in matchups like the Sun vs. Mercury game emphasize the importance of informed betting decisions. With the playoffs on the horizon, every game becomes a platform for teams to make their mark or bow out gracefully. We might find value on Phoenix today but I wouldn't get it and I think they get smashed.

MODEL Bets: No play
Anthony's leans: No Play

Good luck

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