Anthony P's NHL Model January 23, 2023

Anthony P
Anthony P
We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.
Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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I had a little fun yesterday throwing in the Jets, VGK, LA, and Boston in a small parlay just to get screwed by Vegas who had played almost a perfect game the night before against the Caps. I'm telling these b2b games are hard on everyone.

I jumped on the Rangers early this morning at -128 and the line moved up in the ranges of -135 to -140. I updated my projections with the Panthers 3rd string goalie and Staal, Bennett, and Ekblad out of the lineup. If Forsling doesn't play the Rangers would be projected at -153. The teams hit the ice 20 min ago and both Bennett and Ekblad were on the ice however we are still not sure if they will play or not. Nonetheless, I like the Rangers. They have a huge edge in nets with Igor vs Lyon + the Rangers are much more rested than the Panthers who are bagged up.

As for the rest of the games we don't have much value except the over in Dallas. Hintz practiced on Sunday therefore I strongly believe he is playing tonight. The total is set at 6.5 while the model is projecting 7.07 goals. We are still not sure who will be between the pipes for Dallas and based on the line movement there is a chance Wedgewood will get the call tonight therefore he's in my projections at the moment. If Oettinger gets the call the total drops to 6.79 and there would be no value. Dallas opened at -190 and is currently at -165. Fatigue can also be a factor for Dallas since they will be playing a 4th game in 6 nights.

The Leafs just shit the bed in Montreal and should come out strong versus the Islanders. If you are looking for a big favorite to add to your parlays the Leafs should be considered. Samsonov is confirmed and we should see Sorokin for the Islanders. The Islanders are 2-8 last 10 games and will be playing a 4th game in 6 nights and it's a bad spot for them.

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