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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Preview - January 21st, 2023


Saturday the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) will battle the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3). Oddsmakers peg the Chiefs as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 81%, leaving the Jaguars with a 19% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Chiefs -9.5 with a Game Total of 52.0.

Jacksonville Jaguars Insights

  • The forecast calls for light rain in this game... which usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

  • Evan Engram has accumulated quite a few more air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects Travis Etienne to rush for 0.55 TDs in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

Kansas City Chiefs Insights

  • The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has not been good when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.39 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.

Betting Trends

  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Team Total Under in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 90% ROI)

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored last in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.15 Units / 49% ROI)

  • Christian Kirk has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)


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