Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Preview - November 27th, 2022

Editor

The Green Bay Packers come in as 6.5 point road underdog as they travel to Lincoln Financial Field to play the Philadelphia Eagles. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 13 in 2020. That game resulted in a road win for the Packers with a final score of 30-16.

Philadelphia's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 312 yards per game -- #9-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #6-least yards per game: 192. A big factor in their success has been the ability to shed blocks and get to the quarterback quickly; they've averaged just 2.4 seconds after the snap before getting pressure on the QB -- #7-quickest in the league. The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing wide receivers, holding them to a 57.8% completion rate (#1-stingiest in football). Philadelphia's best coverage unit has been their cornerbacks, which grade out as the #2 unit in the NFL in this regard. Philadelphia's pass rush has been led by their defensive ends who, ranking as the #1 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits. When it comes to their offense, the Eagles check in at #17 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 231 yards per game (#19 in football). Their run game has ranked #10 with 4.58 yards per attempt on the ground.

Green Bay's biggest strength has been their pass defense, which ranks #4 in the league while allowing just 187 yards per game this season. The Packers have done the best job shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 32 yards per game (#4-best). Green Bay's best position group in coverage has been their cornerbacks, which rank #5 in the league in locking down route-runners. Green Bay's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive tackles, which check in as the #7-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Packers have ranked #10 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 246 yards per game (#12 in football). On the ground they've ranked #14 with 4.52 yards per carry.

Green Bay Packers Insights

  • The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.

  • Aaron Rodgers's throwing precision has tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.6% to 66.2%.

  • The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.55 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in football.

Philadelphia Eagles Insights

  • The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

  • A.J. Brown has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (88.0 per game) than he did last season (97.0 per game).

  • The Philadelphia Eagles have used play action on 33.8% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Betting Trends

  • The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)

  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)

  • A.J. Brown has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.70 Units / 29% ROI)