Mitch's NCAAF Bet of the Day | September 9, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

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OVERALL RECORD: 7-3, +3.28u
RECAP: We’ve hit on a ton of picks this past week, as we’re currently on a 6-1 run in college football. Last night, we hit a crazy under in the Illinois/Kansas game by half a point - it was a riveting ride for sure. The haters are in shambles! Today, I have five college football picks, and I’ll give you the one I believe in the most for free, because I’m nice like that.

September 9, 2023

PICK: UTEP Miners +1.5
You’re going to give me one of the best lines in football, paired with one of the best defenses in G5, and give me points against the most dysfunctional P5 team in the nation? I’m going to take that every day. 

We’ve got two Sharp Pros & Coaches on this game today, in a game where the spread has moved up and down throughout the week. 

The biggest reason for this pick is that the books have no clue where to place it; the Sharp App actually projects a spread of UTEP -1, and this line has stopped as low as UTEP -3.5. I’m not sure what kind of change has happened, but I love that we’re getting free points against a team that hasn’t won a football game in America since the year 2021.

The key to this game is Northwestern QB Ben Bryant, who is a Cinci transfer. In his last game against Rutgers, he looked like he had no flow of the offense, and showed that a good defense can stifle his progressions. We get exactly that today, as UTEP has one of the best defenses we’ve ever seen from a UTEP group. Last season, they had the best defense in Conference USA, and they’ve only allowed 291 yards of offense per game so far in their two games played. They have a defensive line, anchored by Praise Amaewhule, that can wreak havoc in the run game, and linebacker Tyrice Knight already has 29 tackles through just two games this season. 

On offense for UTEP, QB Gavin Hardison is going to have to carry the offense. He’s got over 300 yards passing in his first two matchups this season, and he’s lost some of his best weapons on offense from last year. Yet, RB Deion Hankins has looked good through two games, and while this B1G defense should be able to stop the run in spurts, I think that this offensive line is too good to keep too many points off of the board. 

The Miners have a better line on both sides of the ball, and this Wildcat offense has been one of the worst & most inconsistent in the entire NCAA over the past two seasons. Expect a tight game in Evanston, IL, but for the UTEP Miners to move to 2-1 on the season.

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