Thursday 10.28 Props With Adam Strangis
We've got a big Thursday Night Football game and a six-game NBA slate so there's a lot going on. That sounds like a great time to play both spots so instead of focusing on one, let's pick some props from both sports tonight!
NFL
Randall Cobb Over 4.5 Receptions at -105
With the Packers tonight, we're going to have to take a small leap on the pass catchers. Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are both out with Covid. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a true game-time decision with a hamstring injury that has had him on the IR for weeks. To say this receiving corps is banged up is an understatement. Adams accounted for 33.9% of the target share and Lazard was just under 10%. The ball has to go somewhere and Cobb is going to be a primary target tonight.
Zach Ertz Over 3.5 Receptions at +100
In his first game in the desert, Ertz played just 49% of the snaps and drew five targets for three receptions. Even though it is a short week, he's still had more time with the team and they made an effort to get him involved right away. The Packers linebackers are very vulnerable and getting this at plus money is a nice bonus. Ertz was brought in to add a dimension to the offense and before Maxx Williams was hurt, he carried a 10.8% target share. Ertz is a higher caliber player than Williams and he had at least one target last week where he was open and had a miscommunication with Kyler Murray. Those will get fewer with more reps.
NBA
Julius Randle Over 9.5 Rebounds at +105
This number at plus money doesn't make a lot of sense in my eyes. First off, the Bulls are 29th in rebounding in the early going so they are vulnerable to start with. Randle has gone into double-digits in three of four games so far and he's sixth in rebounding chances per game. Randle is also playing nearly 38 minutes per night and has every chance to go over this number in a game that has just a 1.5 point spread.
Jakob Poeltl Over 9.5 Rebounds at +145
This prop has an excellent return for something that is well in the range of outcomes. Dallas looks like a strong rebounding team with over 50 per game, sitting tied for fifth in the league. However, they are very vulnerable in the paint as they have allowed the fourth-most rebounds inside the paint which is the spot where Poeltl cleans up. Not only does Poeltl average almost 11 boards a game, but he is fifth in rebounding chances but he leads the league in paint touches. That's where he lives and this number is too high to pass on.
Ja Morant Over 26.5 Points at -105
This is a back-to-back game for the Grizzlies but Morant leads the league in scoring despite having a poor game last night. He's in the top 15 in field goal attempts and top 10 in free throw attempts. This game features the highest O/U of the night and if the Grizzlies are going to keep pace with Steph Curry and the Warriors, they need Morant to score near 30 points.
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