Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays Matchup Preview - September 20th, 2022


Yordan Alvarez and the Astros go head-to-head against Jose Siri and the Rays today. Over the last 7 days, Yordan Alvarez has provided the bulk of the offense for Astros. He's batted .480 with 10 runs, 11 RBIs, and 5 home runs. Meanwhile, it's been Jose Siri who has been hot for the Rays. Over the last week, he's batting .261 with 4 runs, 2 RBIs, 1 home runs, and 3 stolen bases.

Houston Astros Insights

  • Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Cristian Javier (46.4% FB% according to THE BAT projections) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 GB hitters in Tampa Bay's projected batting order.

  • The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in Major League Baseball, via THE BAT.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

  • It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Shane McClanahan has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 5.3% more often this year (64.4%) than he did last year (59.1%).

  • Extreme groundball hitters like Randy Arozarena usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristian Javier.

  • Manuel Margot hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (44.1% — 100th percentile) and faces MLB's 9th-deepest CF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.25 Units / 28% ROI)

  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 45 away games (+19.75 Units / 36% ROI)

  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.55 Units / 94% ROI)