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Anthony P's WNBA Model September 7, 2023

Anthony P
We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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The Women's National Basketball Association playoffs are on the horizon, and the stakes have never been higher. For sports bettors, this intensifying competition provides a minefield of opportunities, but one must discern the valuable nuggets from the mere flashes in the pan.

Take my recent experience, for instance. I recalibrated my strategies, with a sharper focus on a first-half bet yesterday and it was a winner. I zoomed in on the Atlanta game, and the Dream didn't let me down. While the model indicated a value at +8.5, the line eventually closed at +9. And wouldn't you know it, the Dream sailed through with an 11-point victory, comfortably covering the spread.

But now, the limelight shines bright on the New York Liberty. Their impressive streak speaks volumes: 14 victories in their last 15 outings. They are on the cusp of seizing the top seed in the WNBA, with just one game separating them from that coveted position. Their momentum seems unstoppable, a sentiment underscored by their 4-0 ATS (against the spread) record in recent home games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

But here comes the twist. Enter the Los Angeles Sparks, a team displaying contrasting fortunes. With four losses in their last five games, the Sparks are desperately searching for a spark to ignite their playoff hopes. Their record currently mirrors that of the Sky, making every game a do-or-die scenario for that final playoff berth. Analyzing their ATS trends, the Sparks have been commendable on the road, boasting a 5-2 record in their last seven away encounters. However, their overall recent form of 1-4 ATS cannot be ignored.

For the neutral, this sets up an intriguing contest. The dominant Liberty, seeking to consolidate their top seed aspirations, face off against the desperate Sparks, whose playoff dreams hang by a thread. History suggests a close battle; in the two games the Sparks played against the Liberty this season, both were nail-biters decided by single-digit margins.

The betting lines might tilt heavily in favor of a Liberty victory, but therein lies the opportunity. The Sparks are currently in a position where they're being handed double-digit free points. Given the urgency and the stakes at play, it's hard not to see value in siding with the Sparks. After all, they're not just playing for points; they're playing for their postseason lives. The lines is moving back up for the Liberty and are now at -13.5. Anything over 15 points take the Sparks plus the number.

MODEL Bets: no value
Anthony's leans: Sparks if the line gets to +15 or better

Good luck

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