WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge April 30, 2024

We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. 

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often. 

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. This is because there is a high likelihood that the big dog will win the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.

Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Iga Swiatek -1100 -805 -3% Madrid
Beatriz Haddad Maia 800 805 0% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Madison Keys 110 300 -23% Madrid
Ons Jabeur -135 -300 18% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Yulia Putintseva 390 472 -3% Madrid
Elena Rybakina -500 -472 -1% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Mirra Andreeva 220 303 -6% Madrid
Aryna Sabalenka -275 -303 2% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Polina Kudermetova 155 256 -11% Saint Malo
Daria Saville -195 -256 6% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Carole Monnet 155 192 -5% Saint Malo
Selena Janicijevic -165 -192 3% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Alize Cornet -575 -555 0% Saint Malo
Astrid Lew Yan Foon 450 555 -3% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Chloe Paquet 120 159 -7% Saint Malo
Renata Zarazua -145 -159 2% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Solana Sierra -350 -299 -3% Saint Malo
Eden Silva 265 299 -2% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Taylah Preston -120 152 -15% Saint Malo
Kristina Mladenovic 100 -152 10% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Jessika Ponchet 175 242 -7% Saint Malo
Anna Blinkova -215 -242 2% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Iryna Shymanovich 120 -113 8% Saint Malo
Anastasia Tikhonova -145 113 -12% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Peyton Stearns -155 -126 -5% Saint Malo
Sachia Vickery 125 126 0% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Astra Sharma -115 -185 11% Saint Malo
Emiliana Arango -110 185 -17% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Clara Burel -180 -248 7% Saint Malo
Zeynep Sonmez 150 248 -11% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Lucija Ciric Bagaric -160 -131 -5% Lleida
Oceane Dodin 130 131 0% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Rebeka Masarova -130 -119 -2% Lleida
Erika Andreeva 105 119 -3% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Dejana Radanovic 650 678 0% Lleida
Xiyu Wang -900 -678 -3% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Lina Glushko -195 -139 -8% Lleida
Carlota Martinez Cirez 155 139 3% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Alycia Parks 500 491 0% Lleida
Katerina Siniakova -700 -491 -4% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Emma Navarro -360 -116 -25% Lleida
Bernarda Pera 285 116 20% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Elizabeth Mandlik 145 295 -16% Lleida
Claire Liu -175 -295 11% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Aliaksandra Sasnovich 170 135 5% Lleida
Mayar Sherif -210 -135 -10% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Nuria Parrizas Diaz 210 261 -5% Lleida
Ana Bogdan -265 -261 0% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Arantxa Rus -230 -145 -11% Lleida
Kamilla Rakhimova 185 145 6% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Sofia Kenin -450 -237 -12% Lleida
Irene Burillo Escorihuela 360 237 8% Clay