Statsational WTA Model Australia Open January 15, 2024
John Alesia
We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often. On matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high, I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.
January 15
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Dayana Yastremska | 360 | 405 | -2% |
Marketa Vondrousova | -500 | -405 | -3% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Elina Svitolina | -1600 | -596 | -8% |
Taylah Preston | 850 | 596 | 4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Linda Noskova | 130 | -117 | 10% |
Marie Bouzkova | -160 | 117 | -16% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Yanina Wickmayer | 135 | 111 | 5% |
Varvara Gracheva | -165 | -111 | -10% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Kayla Day | 170 | 126 | 7% |
Viktoriya Tomova | -210 | -126 | -12% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Storm Sanders | -320 | -189 | -11% |
Sara Errani | 250 | 189 | 6% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Nadia Podoroska | -115 | 119 | -8% |
Tamara Zidansek | -105 | -119 | 3% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1500 | 1747 | -1% |
Cori Gauff | -6000 | -1747 | -4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Kaja Juvan | 235 | 177 | 6% |
Anastasia Potapova | -295 | -177 | -11% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Ekaterina Alexandrova | -225 | -107 | -18% |
Laura Siegemund | 180 | 107 | 13% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Marta Kostyuk | -250 | -270 | 2% |
Claire Liu | 200 | 270 | -6% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Diana Shnaider | 170 | 259 | -9% |
Jasmine Paolini | -210 | -259 | 4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Tatjana Maria | 160 | 158 | 0% |
Camila Osorio | -195 | -158 | -5% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Fiona Ferro | -180 | 100 | -14% |
Mccartney Kessler | 150 | -100 | 10% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Rebeka Masarova | 130 | 118 | 2% |
Aliaksandra Sasnovich | -160 | -118 | -7% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | -230 | 110 | -22% |
Donna Vekic | 185 | -110 | 17% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Mayar Sherif | 450 | 398 | 2% |
Elise Mertens | -650 | -398 | -7% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Jaqueline Adina Cristian | 230 | 218 | 1% |
Katerina Siniakova | -295 | -218 | -6% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Yulia Putintseva | -370 | -706 | 9% |
Anastasia Zakharova | 280 | 706 | -14% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Magdalena Frech | 110 | 114 | -1% |
Daria Saville | -135 | -114 | -4% |
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