Statsational Soccer May 27. 2023

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!


The process of reading the model is straightforward. I obtain the line from one of the sportsbooks and disclose the source each day. Then, I present the model's estimation of what the line should be. The most crucial aspect is the last column, which represents the edge I perceive based on the variance between my line and the bettable line.

Naturally, one might be inclined to bet on all lines with an edge. However, I adopt a slightly conservative approach and seek a 5% edge or higher before placing a wager. When it comes to soccer (and tennis), I exercise caution with significant edges. A margin of 15-20% or more might indicate that the model is overlooking something, such as an injury or the influence of sharp bettors who have shifted the line in the opposite direction, resulting in a high negative edge. In such cases, it could be an opportunity to bet against the team that appears to have an edge—a strategy known as fading.

I encourage each of you to experiment with these lines and keep track of your own observations. Determine if those teams with a substantial edge tend to lose frequently.

Occasionally, I favor placing bets on the spread line for matches where we identify an edge but the line is set at a considerable value. The rationale behind this approach is that the underdog winning the match is highly unlikely, yet there might be value in betting on the spread. You can even divide your wager and place bets on both outcomes simultaneously.

Today's lines are taken from DraftKings

May 27

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Dortmund

2.14

-750

-228

-19%

Mainz

0.84

1100

725

4%

Draw

800

444

7%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Stuttgart

1.49

-180

123

-19%

Hoffenheim

1.17

370

252

7%

Draw

350

274

5%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Frankfurt

1.39

130

145

-3%

Freiburg

1.18

170

226

-6%

Draw

270

251

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Koeln

0.92

600

498

2%

Bayern

1.90

-340

-161

-16%

Draw

500

363

5%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Gladbach

1.77

115

-129

10%

Augsburg

0.96

205

426

-14%

Draw

265

307

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Bochum

1.07

215

295

-6%

Leverkusen

1.58

100

104

-1%

Draw

295

290

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Wolfsburg

2.01

-350

-209

-10%

Hertha

0.80

700

697

0%

Draw

500

405

3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Union Berlin

1.78

-265

-147

-13%

Werder

0.87

600

470

3%

Draw

370

335

2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

RB Leipzig

2.24

-175

-305

12%

Schalke

0.72

360

1129

-14%

Draw

350

505

-6%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Fiorentina

1.17

100

179

-14%

Roma

1.12

250

213

3%

Draw

240

211

3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Inter

1.73

-125

-134

2%

Atalanta

0.91

300

433

-6%

Draw

270

318

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Spezia

1.00

135

251

-14%

Torino

1.27

205

139

9%

Draw

220

236

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Salernitana

1.20

165

173

-1%

Udinese

1.14

150

207

-7%

Draw

235

225

1%