Statsational Soccer January 21, 2023

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Soccer matchups as often as possible. Because of the manual work, I will try and stay in the big leagues. On slow days I will add in some of the smaller leagues worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis), I tend to be slightly leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match,

but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings

January 21

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Liverpool	1.59	-115	-108	-2%
Chelsea	0.95	310	391	-4%
Draw		280	260	1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
West Ham	1.41	-125	117	-9%
Everton	0.97	380	305	4%
Draw		260	243	1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Leicester	1.18	250	213	3%
Brighton	1.36	105	147	-8%
Draw		270	263	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Southampton	1.14	190	245	-5%
Aston Villa	1.45	150	132	3%
Draw		230	259	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Crystal Palace	1.00	330	269	4%
Newcastle	1.34	-115	129	-10%
Draw		255	242	1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Bournemouth	1.20	180	171	1%
Forest	1.10	175	206	-4%
Draw		210	230	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Atletico	1.83	-280	-194	-8%
Valladolid	0.70	700	707	0%
Draw		370	363	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Sevilla	1.51	-150	-119	-6%
Cadiz	0.80	400	433	-1%
Draw		265	271	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Espanyol	1.05	170	257	-9%
Betis	1.37	165	131	6%
Draw		200	249	-5%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Rayo Vallecano	1.06	205	248	-4%
Sociedad	1.33	140	138	0%
Draw		205	241	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Stuttgart	1.27	135	169	-5%
Mainz	1.20	185	202	-2%
Draw		240	237	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Frankfurt	2.19	-290	-273	-1%
Schalke	0.76	650	945	-4%
Draw		400	481	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Koeln	1.48	115	128	-3%
Werder	1.17	200	246	-4%
Draw		260	268	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Bochum	1.36	135	149	-2%
Hertha	1.17	185	220	-4%
Draw		240	250	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Wolfsburg	1.30	155	167	-2%
Freiburg	1.22	170	199	-4%
Draw		225	244	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Union Berlin	1.58	120	-105	6%
Hoffenheim	1.00	220	370	-10%
Draw		225	263	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Fiorentina	1.28	110	137	-5%
Torino	1.00	250	264	-1%
Draw		220	230	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Salernitana	0.60	750	1294	-5%
Napoli	2.31	-340	-374	2%
Draw		450	617	-4%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Verona	1.30	135	154	-3%
Lecce	1.14	220	221	0%
Draw		200	239	-4%