Statsational Soccer January 21, 2023

John Alesia
John Alesia
As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Soccer matchups as often as possible. Because of the manual work, I will try and stay in the big leagues. On slow days I will add in some of the smaller leagues worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis), I tend to be slightly leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match,
but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings

January 21

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Liverpool

1.59

-115

-108

-2%

Chelsea

0.95

310

391

-4%

Draw

280

260

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

West Ham

1.41

-125

117

-9%

Everton

0.97

380

305

4%

Draw

260

243

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Leicester

1.18

250

213

3%

Brighton

1.36

105

147

-8%

Draw

270

263

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Southampton

1.14

190

245

-5%

Aston Villa

1.45

150

132

3%

Draw

230

259

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Crystal Palace

1.00

330

269

4%

Newcastle

1.34

-115

129

-10%

Draw

255

242

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Bournemouth

1.20

180

171

1%

Forest

1.10

175

206

-4%

Draw

210

230

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Atletico

1.83

-280

-194

-8%

Valladolid

0.70

700

707

0%

Draw

370

363

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Sevilla

1.51

-150

-119

-6%

Cadiz

0.80

400

433

-1%

Draw

265

271

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Espanyol

1.05

170

257

-9%

Betis

1.37

165

131

6%

Draw

200

249

-5%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Rayo Vallecano

1.06

205

248

-4%

Sociedad

1.33

140

138

0%

Draw

205

241

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Stuttgart

1.27

135

169

-5%

Mainz

1.20

185

202

-2%

Draw

240

237

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Frankfurt

2.19

-290

-273

-1%

Schalke

0.76

650

945

-4%

Draw

400

481

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Koeln

1.48

115

128

-3%

Werder

1.17

200

246

-4%

Draw

260

268

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Bochum

1.36

135

149

-2%

Hertha

1.17

185

220

-4%

Draw

240

250

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Wolfsburg

1.30

155

167

-2%

Freiburg

1.22

170

199

-4%

Draw

225

244

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Union Berlin

1.58

120

-105

6%

Hoffenheim

1.00

220

370

-10%

Draw

225

263

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Fiorentina

1.28

110

137

-5%

Torino

1.00

250

264

-1%

Draw

220

230

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Salernitana

0.60

750

1294

-5%

Napoli

2.31

-340

-374

2%

Draw

450

617

-4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Verona

1.30

135

154

-3%

Lecce

1.14

220

221

0%

Draw

200

239

-4%