Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 8, 2023 (1)

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers, summarizing overnight developments. Updates throughout the day keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When both sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Now, let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: Sharps added another win yesterday with OKC. It was a tough game to call as per the article and I usually prefer defense over offense.

As the sun rises on another day in the sports betting universe, we're greeted with a quieter NBA scene, but there's no shortage of action as the NHL and college sports arenas are abuzz with opportunities for the sharp and savvy bettors. Let's take a closer look at where the smart money is moving and which games are setting the sportsbooks alight with activity.

Skating into the NHL Action

Our journey begins on the ice, where the NHL is dishing out an 11-game feast. Last evening, the Senators pulled off a stunner, overcoming the Maple Leafs with a handsome +145 line that had the sharps smiling all the way to the bank. Now, they prepare to welcome one of the hottest teams in the league, a challenge that has seen the Canucks' opening odds escalate from an even -108 to a more decisive -130 at several books.

This kind of line movement is indicative of a market reacting to a blend of recent performances and the anticipation surrounding the top two scorers who will be showcasing their talents on the Senators' turf. As we've seen, the impact of standout players can tilt the odds, creating a narrative of expectation versus performance that is the bedrock of sports betting.

Another scenario unfolding is reminiscent of a recent shift where Detroit's line improved when Quick was confirmed in goal due to Shesterkin's injury. We're witnessing a similar pattern today. The Minnesota Wild are anticipating the Rangers, and the line's instability is directly tied to the man between the pipes. The odds could sway further if Igor Shesterkin makes a surprise return, with some speculating a move to -150. Yet, my model remains steadfast, indicating that there's more to these matchups than just the goaltenders.

The Curious Case of Back-to-Backs

Turning to the NBA, where we have only two games on the docket, there's a peculiar interest in the total for the Indiana game. Despite both teams playing consecutive nights, the total has seen a downtick from 243 to 241.5. This suggests that bettors might be expecting fatigue to play a factor, despite the adrenaline-fueled energy that often characterizes back-to-backs.

A College Football Total Tale

In the realm of college football, Louisville's total is telling its own tale. A fascinating narrative is developing as we trace the number from its origins. Circa's opening at 56.5, quickly dropping to 50.5, paints a picture of heavy early action on the under. Other offshore books opted for a more conservative opening, adding layers to the story. With Betonline joining the fray at 50.5, it's clear there's a divide between various market makers. Despite the absence of inclement weather and a heavy lean on the over with 80% of the handle, the total has settled, suggesting that the initial wave of under bets may have found its equilibrium.

College Basketball Betting Fever

The college basketball landscape is heating up with several games attracting high volumes of bets. Among these, the Saint Mary's game stands out. Despite significant action on Saint Mary and the under, the line has remained stubbornly static. This hints at potential late moves as bookmakers adjust to balance the action, a classic cat-and-mouse game in the sports betting world.

At Kent State, we've witnessed a fascinating line migration from Betonline's open at -1 to -3.5. This presents a perfect example of the importance of timing and shopping for lines, as latecomers to the party, like Circa and Bookmaker, unveiled a -3.5 that has remained consistent.

Michigan State's line has ballooned, fueled by public money pushing it from -27 to a hefty -30.5, with some books even testing the -31 waters. And let's not overlook UC Davis, where a substantial line move from -4.5 to -9 has unfolded, outpacing the consensus of -8.5.

Conclusion

What we're seeing across the board, from the chill of the NHL rinks to the fervor of the college sports fields, is the intricate dance of line movements—a dance that tells a story of expectations, public perception, and the shrewd calculations of those looking to capitalize on the ebb and flow of sports betting markets. It's a narrative rich with detail, where the astute bettor reads between the lines to find true value. As we delve into today's games, keep an eye on these narratives, for they can often reveal more than just the numbers—they can unveil the very pulse of the betting world.

RECAP: no games today

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