Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 3, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: The Celtics over was never in doubt right? 250 pts scored and the the Thunder looked really good!

In the world of sports betting, line movements offer critical insights into how various factors like team performance, player availability, and public betting trends can influence odds. Recent activities in the NHL, NBA, and CBB present intriguing scenarios.

NHL: Surprising Market Reactions

In the NHL, a limited slate with several teams playing back-to-back nights has created notable shifts. The Washington Capitals, after a surprising victory in Pittsburgh, are hosting the New Jersey Devils. Despite traveling overnight and likely fielding their third-string goalie, the market reaction was unexpected. The Devils' odds unexpectedly dropped from -175 to -156, despite missing key player Meier. This decline occurred even though 90% of public bets were on the Devils. Interestingly, sharp bettors also favored the Devils when the odds hit -155, suggesting confidence in their victory despite the odds movement.

NBA: Unexpected Line Movements Amid Player Uncertainties

The NBA shows a similar trend of unpredictability. Despite six teams playing on consecutive nights, line movements have been somewhat counterintuitive. For instance, the Milwaukee Bucks saw their line move from -2.5 to -3.5 despite uncertainty over Middleton's play, hinting he might participate. The New York Knicks experienced a 2-point jump from -7.5 to -9.5 against the Chicago Bulls, who are dealing with injuries and game-time decision players. In another game, Utah, supported by 90% of the handle, saw their line fluctuate significantly against the Detroit Pistons, impacted by Stewart's absence. The Suns, missing Kevin Durant, observed the Clippers’ line moving from -3 to potentially -5 by tip-off, with heavy betting favoring the Clippers.

CBB: Betting Trends Influencing Line Movements

In college basketball, betting trends have significantly influenced line movements in recent games. For the Providence-Seton Hall game, the line moved from Providence at -5 to -7.5 due to heavy betting, only to experience a slight drop after buyback on Seton Hall. Villanova, too, saw their line increase from -6 to -8.5, though the percentage of the handle supporting them dropped when the line was at its highest.

Conclusion: Market Dynamics Reflect Complexity

These movements across different sports highlight the complexity of sports betting markets. Factors like team performance, player injuries, back-to-back game fatigue, and public and sharp betting patterns all play crucial roles. While some movements might seem counterintuitive at first glance, they often reflect deeper market dynamics and insider perspectives.

Game of the Day:

As the New York Knicks prepare to face off against the Chicago Bulls, the stage is set for what appears to be a lopsided encounter, with the Knicks favored to not only win but also cover the -9.5 spread. The Knicks have been highlighted as a significant selection in the sharp report, identified as a "mega sharp play." This designation indicates that more than four sharp bettors are placing their bets on the Knicks, with none opting for the opposing side. Let's breakdown the game and see if we agree with the Sharps.

Bulls' Back-to-Back Struggle and Injury Woes

The Bulls are navigating through a challenging phase, marked by a recent heavy loss and the burden of back-to-back road games. Compounded by an injury-ridden roster, the Bulls face an uphill battle. The absence of key players like Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball has been a significant setback, and their struggle to cover spreads on the road (7-8 ATS) further hints at their vulnerabilities.

Knicks' Home Court Advantage and Recent Form

The Knicks, on the other hand, have been thriving, especially at Madison Square Garden (MSG), with a 9-4 SU record at home. Their recent acquisition of OG Anunoby has bolstered their lineup, providing the defensive edge they needed. Additionally, their head-to-head record against the Bulls at MSG (10-4 ATS) indicates a historical advantage.

Rest and Momentum: The Knicks' Edge

Rest plays a crucial role in the grueling NBA schedule, and the Knicks come into this game more rested and on a high after their win over Minnesota. In contrast, the Bulls are dealing with the fatigue of back-to-back games, which could impact their performance.

Statistical Analysis: Knicks' Balanced Gameplay

Statistically, the Knicks have been impressive, particularly in their home games. Their adjusted defensive efficiency and net rating at home are indicative of a well-balanced and effective team. The Bulls' poor away record and low net rating on the road further skew the odds in favor of the Knicks.

Conclusion: Why the Knicks Will Cover the Spread

Considering the Knicks' strong home record, the Bulls' injury concerns, and the fatigue factor, the -9.5 spread seems a reasonable expectation for the Knicks to cover. The unanimous support from sharp bettors and the historical data against the Bulls at MSG only solidify this prediction. As anticipation builds, the Knicks are poised not just for a win, but a convincing one that covers the spread.

RECAP: NY Knick -9

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