Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 26, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: We had no article yesterday and no bet to review. Let's close the week strong with a win today.

Tonight's sports schedule presents a more manageable slate across the NBA, NHL, and College Basketball (CBB), offering a breather from the recent flurry of college basketball games.

NHL Focus: Despite only four games on the NHL docket, sharp bettors have been active, particularly targeting the Florida Panthers, Seattle Kraken, and the total in the Colorado game. The Panthers have seen a significant shift in odds, moving from -120 to -135, backed by 88% of the handle. Similarly, the over 6 in the Colorado game has seen substantial action, pushing the total to 6.5 in most markets.

The Kraken's odds experienced the most dramatic overnight movement, escalating from -138 to -166, with 90% of the handle in their favor. Some markets even have Seattle priced as high as -175. This continuous shift towards Seattle might eventually create betting value on St. Louis.

NBA Insights: In the NBA, the key movements and injuries have been detailed in the NBA model article for PRO subscribers. The Pacers have notably shifted from +6 to +4.5, despite missing Haliburton, while the Suns potentially face Gordon's absence. With 90% of the early handle on the Suns, the move towards the Pacers suggests some smart money backing them. Sharps are divided on this game at the book.

For the Milwaukee Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo is tagged as probable. In contrast, the Cleveland Cavaliers are dealing with multiple absences, including Mobley, Garland, Thompson (suspension), and Jerome (ankle injury). Surprisingly, the Bucks' line moved from -7 to -5.5, capturing only 47% of the handle. This shift raises questions about Giannis's status, as the line movement appears counterintuitive. Additionally, the under 238.5 has been hit by the sharps, leading to a drop to 237.5.

CBB Highlights: In college basketball, the Michigan vs. Wisconsin game stands out as the premier matchup and has garnered the most betting action. Wisconsin's odds moved from -2 to -3 overnight, and the total score dropped by 3 points from 140 to 137.

Interest in totals is evident with the Niagara game, where the total plummeted from 134 to 132.5. Similarly, the Seattle game saw action on the over at 139, prompting an adjustment to 140.

Overall, these betting trends and movements across different sports tonight offer valuable insights for bettors. Whether it's sharp action in the NHL, line movements in the NBA due to player availability, or key matchups in college basketball, each game presents unique opportunities and challenges for informed betting decisions.

Game of the day:

In today's NBA action, all eyes are on Atlanta where the Mavericks and Hawks are set to ignite a riveting contest. A significant bet of $35,000 placed on the Mavericks at -2 this morning from the Whale has tipped the scales, indicating strong confidence in Dallas. The line, now at -2.5, further suggests that Kyrie Irving, despite being a concern, is expected to play. This game is not just a regular match-up; it's a renewal of the intriguing rivalry between Luka Doncic and Trae Young, adding an extra layer of excitement to the encounter.

Drafted in 2018 and immediately traded for each other, Doncic and Young have evolved into the superstars many predicted they would become, forever linking their careers. With a head-to-head record evenly split at 4-4, tonight's game offers a chance for one to edge ahead. The Hawks, currently underperforming and sitting eight games below .500, face a critical juncture in their season. The Mavericks, hovering just above .500, are also grappling with injuries and consistency issues.

Key players like Irving and Young are listed as questionable, adding suspense to the game's outcome. Regardless of their participation, the spotlight shines on Luka Doncic. His near triple-double season averages are not just impressive stats; they are the backbone of the Mavericks’ identity. Both teams, mired in three-game losing streaks, are desperate for a win, but Dallas, led by Doncic's brilliance, appears to have the upper hand.

Despite their recent 132-109 loss to Phoenix, the Mavericks have shown they can pack a punch offensively, ranking eighth in points per game and 12th in offensive rating. Their defense, though less solid, will be up against an Atlanta team that, while potent offensively, struggles significantly on defense, ranking 28th in points allowed per game.

The Hawks, coming off a 134-112 defeat to Golden State, have their own roster concerns, with several players out and Young's participation uncertain. Atlanta's defensive frailties could be the chink in their armor that Dallas exploits.

In conclusion, the Mavericks, with their potent offense and Doncic's exceptional form, are well-positioned to not only win but also cover the spread against the Hawks. This matchup is more than just a game; it's a chapter in the ongoing narrative between two of the league's brightest stars, set against the backdrop of their teams' quest for resurgence. Expect Dallas to leverage Atlanta's defensive woes and claim a vital road victory, continuing their trend of being a formidable road favorite against the spread.

RECAP: Mavs -2

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