Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 9, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: Easy win for sharps and the betting model. The Orioles were just the better team and it's disappointing to see the Jays so inconsistent on the road this year.
We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.
Today's game is the over 7 in San Diego. This total is moving at 7.5 therefore if you like it also jump on the 7 before the move. I am not a fan of the over in this game. I strongly believe this series will be very low scoring, just like last night. We have 2 solid pitchers again on the mount tonight and with both offenses struggling I don't see many runs. Cobb is due for some massive positive regression based on this xERA and xFIP. In July, he limited hitters to a .219 BA, and in his first start in August .174. Both teams have OPS's of under .700 in the last 14 days. The MLB model has this total projected at 8.22 run and an EV of +14.93
Good luck today
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