Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 12, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: We had no baseball games featured in the Overnight Grind however I did post some NFL preseason plays and we went 2-0
We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.
The MLB betting model is ready and I've posted an early version of the sharp report. The sharps are on 3 games but the model doesn't like any of them. We have a lot of NFL tomorrow and I might post more leans. I don't run my NFL model during the preseason, it's pretty useless, to be honest. Here is the MLB model for Friday. I will update this article Friday morning.
The sharp report identified 5 spots but none that the betting model agrees with. I will take another look at the next update.
Good luck today
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