Statsational PGA Model and St Jude Championship Bets

TPC Southwind in Memphis will host the start of the FedEx playoffs and the St. Jude Championship. 125 golfers made the cut, but only 121 will be participating.

The course is a par 70, 7243 yards. The greens are Champion Bermuda and just 4,300 sqft on average, making them the 4th smallest on tour. There are 11 holes with water penalties. During last season’s WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, the course played to an average score of nearly 1-under, at 69.05.


August 10

As always, I will use the model to find the best value plays on the board. We had very little risk last week and nearly cashed in big. Sungjae Im finished T2 and Russell Henley T5. The risk was just .19 units. This week we have .77 units at risk.

Cam Smith might be the best golfer in the world right now. The Open champion comes into the playoffs ranked 2 in FedEx points. There is much talk about a potential jump to LIV, but I do not think that will be a distraction. His driving accuracy is about the only weakness in his game. That did not come into play last year as he was right there to win. If not for a double on the last hole he would have found himself a part of a four-way playoff with Ancer, Burns, and Matsuyama.


Vince Whaley is a guy showing up high in the rankings, but most people do not know. We will be taking him for a top 20 finish this week. A top 20 against this field would be a big weekend for Whaley. In 28 events this year, he has just six top 25's and two top 10's. Whaley can putt ranked 29 in SG Putting. He also makes a lot of birdies ranking 18th on the tour. If he can minimize the mistakes, he can sneak into the top 20.

Update
Hideki Matsuyama has WD. Our risk drops to .75 units