PGA The American Express Best Bets Plus Top 15 Model Picks For DFS

As the 2024 American Express PGA Tournament approaches, it's time to dive deep into the statistics and course layout that will define this year's competition. The American Express, known for its picturesque courses and challenging layouts, promises to be an exciting event for both players and spectators.

Course Analysis: The Stadium Course at PGA West

The Stadium Course at PGA West, designed by Pete Dye, remains a centerpiece of this tournament. Known for its demanding design, the course tests a golfer's precision and strategic thinking. Key stats to consider here are Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting, given the course's well-guarded greens and fast surfaces.

Hole to Watch: The 17th, "Alcatraz"

One cannot talk about the Stadium Course without mentioning the iconic 17th hole, nicknamed "Alcatraz." This par-3, surrounded by water, has been the turning point in many past tournaments. It demands a high level of accuracy from the tee box, and players’ ability to manage wind conditions can be crucial here.

Driving Distance 32%

Relevance to PGA West: The Stadium Course, with its long par-4s and par-5s, rewards players who can drive the ball far. Longer drives can significantly shorten the approach shots on these holes, allowing players to use shorter irons or wedges, which are generally more accurate. However, it's not just about distance; players must balance power with precision to avoid hazards.

Putting 14%

Key to Success at PGA West: The greens at PGA West are known for their speed and subtle undulations, making putting a critical skill for success. Players who excel in putting average and strokes gained on the green have an advantage, especially on challenging holes where a single putt can mean the difference between a birdie and a par, or a par and a bogey. Efficient putting can compensate for less-than-perfect approaches.

Around The Green 14%

Importance for Recovery Shots: The Stadium Course is designed with risky yet rewarding shots, leading to missed greens. The ability to play well around the green – chipping, bunker shots, and other short game skills – becomes vital. Players who excel in these areas can save par even after missing the green, keeping their scores competitive.

Approach 25%

Precision on Approaches: The approach statistic becomes crucial given the course’s numerous water hazards and strategically placed bunkers. The ability to control iron shots, both in terms of distance and direction, is key. Players who consistently hit greens in regulation (GIR) will have more birdie opportunities and less pressure on their short game.

Driving Accuracy 14%

Navigating Narrow Fairways: The Stadium Course features narrow fairways lined with hazards, making driving accuracy a significant factor. Players who excel in fairway hit percentage can avoid trouble off the tee, setting themselves up for more straightforward approaches. While driving distance is beneficial, it must be coupled with accuracy to truly be effective in this tournament.

The model focuses on the last 24 rounds of each golfer. We are also looking for golfers trending in the right direction.

To Win

Eric Cole

Strengths: Cole has shown consistent improvement in his game, particularly in areas like putting and approach shots.
Challenges: His driving accuracy can be a concern on a course like PGA West, where precision off the tee is crucial.
Tournament Outlook: If Cole can maintain his composure on the greens and improve his tee shots' accuracy, he could be a strong contender.

Min Woo Lee

Strengths: Known for his powerful driving, Lee can leverage his distance off the tee to shorten the course significantly.
Challenges: The key for Lee will be his performance on and around the greens, as his short game can sometimes be inconsistent.
Tournament Outlook: If Lee can combine his driving strength with improved putting and short game, he stands a good chance of performing well.

Taylor Pendrith

Strengths: Pendrith has a solid all-around game, with particular strengths in driving distance and approach shots.
Challenges: Consistency has been an issue, especially in high-pressure situations.
Tournament Outlook: Pendrith needs to maintain his composure and consistency throughout the tournament. His long drives will be an advantage on longer holes.

Alex Noren

Strengths: Noren is known for his excellent short game and putting skills, which will be beneficial on PGA West’s challenging greens.
Challenges: While his short game is a strong suit, his driving accuracy and distance are areas where he might struggle compared to other competitors.
Tournament Outlook: If Noren can manage the fairways and position himself well for approaches, his superior skills around and on the greens could see him making a strong bid.

JT Poston

Strengths: Poston has shown remarkable skills in putting and approach shots, crucial for PGA West’s layout.
Challenges: He needs to work on driving accuracy to avoid hazards and position himself favorably for his strong approach game.
Tournament Outlook: Consistency will be key for Poston. If he can navigate the fairways effectively and capitalize on his putting and approach strengths, he could be a serious contender.

The Top 20 model plays for DFS

1. Scottie Scheffler

• Salary

  : $11,400

• Recent Results:

  • Sentry: T5

  • TOUR Championship: T6

  • BMW Championship: T2

  • FedEx St. Jude: T31

  • The Open: T23

2. Eric Cole

• Salary

  : $8,800

• Recent Results:

  • Sony Open: T13

  • Sentry: T14

  • The RSM Classic: T3

  • ZOZO Championship: T2

  • Shriners Children's Open: T3

3. Min Woo Lee

• Salary

  : $9,500

• Recent Results:

  • ZOZO Championship: T6

  • The Open: T41

  • Genesis Scottish Open: T35

  • Travelers: T9

  • U.S. Open: T5

4. Patrick Cantlay

• Salary

  : $10,800

• Recent Results:

  • Sentry: T12

  • TOUR Championship: 5

  • BMW Championship: T15

  • FedEx St. Jude: 2

  • The Open: T33

5. Xander Schauffele

• Salary

  : $10,900

• Recent Results:

  • Sentry: T10

  • ZOZO Championship: T38

  • TOUR Championship: 2

  • BMW Championship: T8

  • FedEx St. Jude: T24

6. Taylor Pendrith

• Salary

  : $7,800

• Recent Results:

  • Sony Open: T10

  • The RSM Classic: CUT

  • Butterfield Bermuda: T8

  • World Wide Technology: T15

  • Shriners Children's Open: T3

7. Kevin Dougherty

• Salary

  : $6,000

• Recent Results:

  • KFT Championship: T52

  • Nationwide: CUT

  • Boise Open: CUT

  • Pinnacle Bank: T3

  • Utah: T47

8. Wyndham Clark

• Salary

  : $8,900

• Recent Results:

  • Sentry: T29

  • TOUR Championship: 3

  • BMW Championship: T15

  • FedEx St. Jude: T66

  • The Open: T33

9. Stephan Jaeger

• Salary

  : $7,900

• Recent Results:

  • Sony Open: T18

  • The RSM Classic: T28

  • World Wide Technology: T45

  • Sanderson Farms: T25

  • Fortinet: T45

10. Callum Tarren

• Salary

  : $6,500

• Recent Results:

  • Sony Open: CUT

  • The RSM Classic: CUT

  • World Wide Technology: CUT

  • ZOZO Championship: T31

  • Shriners Children's Open: T23

11. Shane Lowry

• Salary

  : $8,700

• Recent Results:

  • Wyndham: T51

  • The Open: CUT

  • Genesis Scottish Open: T12

  • Travelers: T19

  • U.S. Open: T20

12. Will Zalatoris

• Salary

  : $7,900

• Recent Results:

  • Sony Open: CUT

  • Masters: W/D

  • THE PLAYERS: 73

  • Arnold Palmer: T53

  • Genesis: 4

13. Jake Knapp

• Salary

  : $6,800

• Recent Results:

  • Sony Open: T70

  • RBC Canadian: CUT

  • Pinnacle Bank: CUT

  • Utah: T26

  • Price Cutter: T11

14. Alex Noren

• Salary

  : $7,800

• Recent Results:

  • Sony Open: T42

  • The RSM Classic: T23

  • Butterfield Bermuda: 2

  • ZOZO Championship: T48

  • Shriners Children's Open: T3

15. J.T. Poston

• Salary

  : $9,100

• Recent Results:

  • Sony Open: 6

  • Sentry: T5

  • The RSM Classic: T44

  • Shriners Children's Open: T3

16. Daniel Berger

• Salary

  : $8,000

• Recent Results:

  • U.S. Open: CUT

  • the Memorial: T5

  • Charles Schwab: T23

  • PGA Championship: CUT

  • RBC Heritage: T21

17. Sam Burns

• Salary

  : $9,400

• Recent Results:

  • Sentry: T33

  • TOUR Championship: T9

  • BMW Championship: T15

  • FedEx St. Jude: T52

  • Wyndham: T14

18. Davis Thompson

• Salary

  : $7,600

• Recent Results:

  • Sony Open: T57

  • The RSM Classic: T53

  • World Wide Technology: T15

  • Shriners Children's Open: T35

  • Sanderson Farms: T16

19. Chris Gotterup

• Salary

  : $6,800

• Recent Results:

  • World Wide Technology: CUT

  • the Memorial: CUT

  • The RSM Classic: T35

  • Shriners: T44

  • Fortinet Championship: T51

20. Adam Schenk

• Salary

  : $7,600

Recent Results:

• Sentry: T29

• The RSM Classic: T19

• ZOZO Championship: T51

• Shriners Children's Open: CUT

• TOUR Championship: T9