PGA Genesis Open Best Bets Plus Top 20 Model Picks For DFS

As the PGA Tour rolls into the iconic Riviera Country Club for the annual Genesis Open, the anticipation among golf aficionados is palpable. Known for its rich history and the roster of legendary champions it has crowned, the Riviera is not just a test of skill but of strategy and mental fortitude.

The course, affectionately dubbed as "Hogan's Alley" after Ben Hogan's incredible run in the late 1940s, is home to some of the most signature holes on tour. Notably, the 6th hole with its bunker in the middle of the green, and the par-4 10th, one of golf's most strategic short holes, offer a thrilling spectacle for fans and a strategic quandary for players.

Statsational's model for this year's event puts a premium on a specific set of statistics, reflecting the unique challenges posed by Riviera. Driving Distance (28%) tops the list, emphasizing the advantage that power off the tee can provide on this lengthy course. Strokes Gained: Approach (27%) is nearly as critical, acknowledging the need for precise iron play to navigate the well-guarded greens. Meanwhile, Strokes Gained: Putting (15%), Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (15%), and Driving Accuracy (15%) round out the model, highlighting the importance of a well-rounded game.

Let's discuss the prospects of some of the top contenders according to the Statsational model:

Rory McIlroy +1000
Coming into the event at Riviera, Rory McIlroy has had a noteworthy start to the 2024 season with a mix of ups and downs. After a historic win at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, where he became the first to claim the title four times in DP World Tour history, McIlroy showed resilience and skill. His performance was particularly impressive during the third round, where he shot a 9-under 63, setting him up for a victory by one shot despite being ten shots back at one point.

This victory at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic added to his already impressive record in Dubai, marking it as his sixth win in the city where he enjoys significant fan support. The win was a strong indicator of his form and ability to come from behind and secure victory under pressure.

However, following the high of the Dubai Desert Classic, McIlroy had a challenging time at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He started the event strongly but faced difficulties in later rounds, which included a triple-bogey and a two-stroke penalty for an improper drop. This led to a finish at T66, which was a setback considering his previous performances.

Despite this hiccup, McIlroy's track record and his ability to defend titles, such as his clutch performance at the previous year's Genesis Scottish Open, show that he has the experience and skill to bounce back and be a top contender at Riviera. With a game that aligns well with the course's demands and his proven ability to perform under tournament pressure, McIlroy remains a golfer to watch in the upcoming PGA event

Xander Schauffele +1600
Xander Schauffele has been showing a solid performance as he heads into the Riviera event in 2024. His year started on a strong note, tying for third place at the American Express with a score of 27-under 261. This performance demonstrated Schauffele's capacity to deliver under pressure and marked an excellent beginning to the year, setting the stage for future tournaments.

Following this, he continued to maintain a good form, achieving a top-10 finish at the Sentry tournament, further solidifying his consistency on the tour. Schauffele's ability to stay within striking distance of the leaders, as well as his above-average scoring, has been notable in his recent outings. Specifically, he has finished in the top 10 four times over his last five appearances, including two top-five finishes.

His driving distance has been impressive, averaging over 308 yards off the tee in his past five tournaments. Furthermore, his Strokes Gained stats show a well-rounded game with an average of 1.713 in Strokes Gained: Putting and 8.649 in Strokes Gained: Total over his past five tournaments.

Schauffele's success isn't limited to his recent form; he has also consistently performed well in previous seasons, highlighted by multiple top-five and top-10 finishes. Last season, he participated in 22 tournaments, making the cut 21 times and earning five top-five finishes. This level of performance underscores his reliability and threat as a contender at any given event.

As he gears up for Riviera, Schauffele is definitely one of the top golfers to watch, given his exceptional start to the year and his strong statistical backing, which aligns well with the challenging course at Riviera

Ludvig Aberg +2000
Ludvig Aberg is entering the event at Riviera on a high note, showcasing an impressive start to his professional career. After an outstanding college career at Texas Tech, which saw him finish No. 1 in the 2023 PGA TOUR University Ranking and earn immediate PGA TOUR status for the 2023 and 2024 seasons, Aberg has continued to demonstrate his potential on the professional stage. His collegiate achievements include winning the Jack Nicklaus Award, the Fred Haskins Award, and becoming the second golfer ever to win the Ben Hogan Award in back-to-back years. Aberg also made history in his college golf, winning a program-record eight times and capturing back-to-back Big 12 Conference Championship titles.

Transitioning to his professional career, Aberg has already secured his first PGA Tour victory at the RSM Classic, shooting a remarkable 29 under par. This victory came six months after turning professional, a testament to his exceptional talent and skill. He also made a significant impact at the Ryder Cup, with notable performances that included a historic victory alongside Viktor Hovland.

Known for his strong ball-striking ability and his poise under pressure, Aberg has shown that he can handle the rigors of the PGA TOUR, and his performance has earned him a spot in the top 50 world ranking, ensuring an invitation to the Masters. His ability to remain composed during critical moments and deliver outstanding performances has distinguished him as a player to watch.

With such a solid foundation and a track record of success both in college and as a pro, Aberg is well-positioned to be a strong contender at the upcoming PGA event at Riviera​

Eric Cole +7500
Eric Cole is heading into the Riviera event as a golfer who has proven that perseverance and hard work pay off. Despite facing health challenges early in his career, Cole has shown remarkable resilience and has become an inspiring figure on the PGA TOUR.

In the 2023 season, Cole was a model of consistency and late-season success, with four top-five finishes in his final five starts, culminating in a coveted invitation to the Masters. His strong performances qualified him for all of 2024's Signature Events, which are known for their limited fields and star-studded line-ups. Cole's results have been a testament to his ability to compete at the highest level, and his journey has been nothing short of invigorating for those who have followed his career.

As of the start of the 2024 WM Phoenix Open, Cole's recent performances included finishing in the top 20 three times over his last five appearances and making the cut in four out of his last five tournaments. He's demonstrated a solid all-around game, with particular strengths in Strokes Gained: Approach and Putting, reflecting his competitive edge and skill on the green. Cole's average score across his last five events was an impressive -16, and while his average driving distance may not top the charts, his putting and approach play have been significant factors in his recent successes.

Eric Cole's story, especially his recent surge on the tour, is a reminder that success can come at any stage and that a golfer's journey is never a straight line but a path marked by persistence and growth

Adam Scott +3300
Adam Scott is performing well in 2024, coming off a competitive year with significant achievements. Most recently, he won the Cathedral Invitational, marking the end of his competitive year on a high note. During the final round of the event, he showcased his experience and skill, maintaining control and closing out the tournament with a victory.

Scott's win at the Cathedral Invitational adds to his confidence as he prepares for upcoming events. He has shown that he is "trending pretty good," with strong performances in Australian tournaments, including a sixth-place finish at the Australian PGA and a tied fourth at the Australian Open before his latest win.

As he approaches the Riviera event, Scott's recent performances indicate that he is in good form and capable of contending for the title. His experience in closing out tournaments successfully and his recent results suggest he could be a significant challenger at Riviera. This form and confidence could be crucial, especially on a course that requires strategic thinking and a strong mental game.

The 2013 Masters champion is looking forward to the new year with optimism and is inspired to achieve more significant results. His recent performances, combined with his past success at Riviera, where he lifted his first trophy since the 2020 Genesis Invitational, could provide the necessary momentum and inspiration as he enters the next phase of the 2024 season

Sahith Theegala +3500
Sahith Theegala has been showing strong performances as he heads into the Riviera event in 2024. He demonstrated his winning capabilities at the 2023 Fortinet Championship, where he secured a victory with a final-round 68, finishing 21 under and two shots clear of the runner-up. Theegala’s style is marked by his adaptability and creativity on the course, often hitting less than half of the fairways but still managing to hit 75% of the greens in regulation.

Theegala’s ability to maintain a positive outlook and his imaginative approach to the game has served him well. Despite the pressure, his love for the game and his creative mind seem to thrive in challenging situations, allowing him to turn potentially difficult positions into opportunities. His performance at the Fortinet Championship is a testament to his mental strength and his skill in turning tricky shots into scoring opportunities.

Coming into 2024, Theegala has continued to build on his successes. At the Waste Management Phoenix Open, he held the lead during the weekend rounds, showcasing his ability to contend against a strong field. His ranking as 32nd in the Official World Golf Ranking going into the event highlights his ascent and status on the PGA Tour. Moreover, his strong start at The Sentry 2024, where he led the leaderboard after the first round, underscores his form coming into this season.

His journey from a standout collegiate player known for his short game and quick play to securing PGA Tour status by performing well in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals reflects his consistent growth and potential as a player to watch.

As he continues to compete and potentially secures more PGA Tour wins, Theegala stands to gain further benefits, including berths into major tournaments and an extension of his exemption status. His performances and the unique aspects of his game suggest that he could be a significant contender at Riviera, ready to leverage his creative play and mental fortitude.

To Win

Top 20 Model Plays For Draftkings

1. Rory McIlroy - $11,200 - Overall Rank 1: Dr Dist 1, SG: P 32, SG: ARG 24, SG: APP 16, Fwys Gained 53

2. Xander Schauffele - $10,100 - Overall Rank 2: Dr Dist 21, SG: P 27, SG: ARG 28, SG: APP 4, Fwys Gained 21

3. Ludvig Aberg - $9,200 - Overall Rank 3: Dr Dist 9, SG: P 12, SG: ARG 21, SG: APP 10, Fwys Gained 32

4. Eric Cole - $7,700 - Overall Rank 4: Dr Dist 36, SG: P 9, SG: ARG 32, SG: APP 7, Fwys Gained 13

5. Viktor Hovland - $10,000 - Overall Rank 5: Dr Dist 18, SG: P 22, SG: ARG 46, SG: APP 23, Fwys Gained 10

6. Justin Thomas - $9,100 - Overall Rank 6: Dr Dist 4, SG: P 43, SG: ARG 2, SG: APP 15, Fwys Gained 64

7. Adam Scott - $8,200 - Overall Rank 7: Dr Dist 8, SG: P 8, SG: ARG 45, SG: APP 17, Fwys Gained 49

8. Collin Morikawa - $9,500 - Overall Rank 8: Dr Dist 54, SG: P 47, SG: ARG 11, SG: APP 6, Fwys Gained 6

9. Sahith Theegala - $8,600 - Overall Rank 9: Dr Dist 28, SG: P 2, SG: ARG 14, SG: APP 13, Fwys Gained 63

10. Scottie Scheffler - $11,500 - Overall Rank 10: Dr Dist 27, SG: P 61, SG: ARG 43, SG: APP 1, Fwys Gained 41

11. Max Homa - $9,800 - Overall Rank 11: Dr Dist 15, SG: P 34, SG: ARG 13, SG: APP 38, Fwys Gained 43

12. Patrick Cantlay - $9,300 - Overall Rank 12: Dr Dist 29, SG: P 54, SG: ARG 7, SG: APP 14, Fwys Gained 40

13. Grayson Murray - $6,100 - Overall Rank 13: Dr Dist 23, SG: P 14, SG: ARG 30, SG: APP 49, Fwys Gained 31

14. Tommy Fleetwood - $8,800 - Overall Rank 14: Dr Dist 43, SG: P 36, SG: ARG 23, SG: APP 48, Fwys Gained 4

15. Charley Hoffman - $6,200 - Overall Rank 15: Dr Dist 31, SG: P 15, SG: ARG 33, SG: APP 24, Fwys Gained 52

16. Wyndham Clark - $8,300 - Overall Rank 16: Dr Dist 6, SG: P 16, SG: ARG 12, SG: APP 53, Fwys Gained 65

17. Cameron Davis - $7,200 - Overall Rank 17: Dr Dist 25, SG: P 20, SG: ARG 41, SG: APP 50, Fwys Gained 33

18. J.T. Poston - $7,800 - Overall Rank 18: Dr Dist 53, SG: P 7, SG: ARG 38, SG: APP 11, Fwys Gained 34

19. Lucas Glover - $6,500 - Overall Rank 19: Dr Dist 65, SG: P 50, SG: ARG 26, SG: APP 2, Fwys Gained 7

20. Sam Burns - $8,700 - Overall Rank 20: Dr Dist 17, SG: P 10, SG: ARG 63, SG: APP 26, Fwys Gained 46