We said there would be blood last week and boy was there blood! Carnage abound at the Honda Classic as PGA National chewed up and spit out many tour pros, including Daniel Berger who had a 5 stroke lead heading into Sunday erased by the 5th hole. Then in his comeback bid to regain the lead saw him and playing partner Shane Lowry, battle a monsoon on the last hole forcing them both to lay up and make par. Those issues all led to relatively unknown Sepp Straka taking down the tournament at pre-tournament +12500 odds, leading to some MASSIVE tickets.

The Honda kicked off the start of the Florida Swing and the next stop is a little more forgiving course at Bay Hill Club and Lodge, host of this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational typically has the best of the best in the world teeing it up as they get prepared for the Player's Championship the following week at TPC Sawgrass and this week is no different as we get a strong field looking to don the Arnold Palmer Red Cardigan with a win!

Let's take a little bit of a deeper dive into the course before we get to the field and my bets for the week!

The Course:

Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Par: 36-36—72
Yardage: 7,466
Stimpmeter: 12

Architect (year): Dick Wilson (1961)
Renovation Architect (year): Arnold Palmer (2009)

Average Green Size: 7,500 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 84
Number of Water Hazards: 8
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 9

Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .110”
Fairways: Bermudagrass .350”
Rough: Bermuda os/w perennial rye 3”

Recent Winners:

2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
2017: Marc Leishman (-11

A pretty wide variety of scores here for the winners, but that's been mostly affected by the weather, if it's nice and they set up the course well then we can see guys go low here, if not then there's trouble with the water hazards and lightning fast greens.

We have some decently wide fairways here which benefit the guys who can find them because the rough is definitely penal and can force a lay up. Some tee shots themselves force guys to lay up just to avoid the rough. Length is a bit long but not so long that short hitters can't have success here, Molinari tore this course apart a few years ago by finding every fairway and getting hot with his putter.

Speaking of getting hot with the putter, that's really the most important thing this week aside from finding the fairway. Whoever can putt on these fast bermuda greens will be in the mix, especially if they are finding fairways. While last week at the Honda we needed guys who can get up and down from around the greens, the size of these greens at Bay Hill at almost 7500 sq. feet on average mean that our greens in regulation percentage this week will be pretty high and we won't have to worry too much about it.

One thing to note as we look to bet a winner here:

Six of the last seven winners had already recorded at least one prior top-5 finish at Bay Hill before winning.

Last 11 winners had all played at the Arnold Palmer Invitation the year prior and made the cut.

Thanks to Geoff @thefantasygrind for this info!

Trend or just noise? Hard to tell but I think we should definitely give it some credence.

The Favorites
Jon Rahm +750 (Bet $100 to win $1300 Fanduel)

Best player in the world, making his debut at this course. The trend from above would indicate that he doesn't have a chance but this is Jon freaking Rahm we're talking about here. Has all the requisite skills to contend here, but as I said above, you NEED a hot putter to be in the mix and Rahm's putter has been anything but hot over the last few weeks, losing 4.9 strokes with the flat stick in his last two events.

We could get a bounce back here from him, but I think the best way to go about betting a guy like Rahm is to get him in play after a mediocre first round, or if he has an afternoon tee time and we see him drift back around +1000. A mediocre first round with a solid putting performance would be go time for me as I'm assuming as long as he doesn't blow up he'd be closer to +1400.

Rory McIlroy +1000 (Bet $100 to win $1600 Fanduel)
Made the cut here last year? Check
5th or better here previously? Check
Rory fits the trends that we're looking for in a golfer to win here. He's actually won this event before and his worst finish is 10th here over his last 5 tries, doing so last year.

Hot putter? Check. He's been SMASHING with the flat stick, gaining over 11 strokes over his last two events (that does include the CJ Cup last fall but he did gain strokes putting on the DP World Tour in both of his events this spring).

I actually don't mind a bet on Rors here but the odds are just so short. I think we can get him +1500 or better after round one.

Scottie Scheffler +1600 (Bet $100 to win $2000 PointsBet)
Didn't play here last year and he's not got a top 5? Stay away!
Just kidding. I think Scheffler has a chance to win but this number is so short given his recent win on tour. Better bets further down the board.

Weekly Bets

+5000 or better:

Will Zalatoris +3000 (Bet $100 to win $3000 PointsBet)
The caddy from Happy Gilmore is going to win soon and I like his chances here at Bay Hill. Made the cut last year here and while he didn't get a top 5, he did finish T10 which is close enough for me.

Iron play has just been absolutely outrageous lately, so good that he doesn't even really need to putt, though a close to even week here would guarantee he's in the mix. Love his game for this course and think he's an elite value here at +2800.

Matthew Fitzpatrick +2700 Fanduel (Bet $100 to win $2700 Fanduel)
Fitzy is a horse for the course here. 10th, 9th, 2nd in his last three trips to Bay Hill (should have won when he was 2nd, that burned me good that week as I had a big ticket on him).

Coming in here not only with great history but elite current form. 10th in Phoenix and 6th at Pebble Beach. Gaining strokes everywhere. He just checks all the boxes for me. I was betting him regardless of what he opened at and was pleased to see a 2 when scrolling the odds this morning.

Longshots:
Keegan Bradley +9000 (Bet $100 to win $9000 PointsBet)

+350 Top 20 Draftkings

Keegan Bradley?! In this economy? You better believe it, baby!

Playing pretty well right now, gaining strokes everywhere but with the putter, and even that isn't that bad. So good tee to green if he can just find a week where he's tour average putting he will contend.

I think we see this course play a bit softer than the year Hatton shot -4 to win and the softer the better for Keegan. Fairways and Greens are his game and these fast surfaces actually benefit poor putters, which he most definitely is.

The top 20 bet is a much better play than the outright but I don't mind throwing some pizza money on Keegs wearing the red sweater come Sunday.

Lee Westwood +13000 (Bet $100 to win $13000 Draftkings)
+350 Top 20 Draftkings

Love a European at Bay Hill. Traditionally they crush here, and Westy is no exception, having finished 2nd here last year to check off both the trends we're looking for.

Had a nice week at the Honda last week, just struggled immensely around the greens which won't be a huge concern given the size of the greens here.

Top 20 bet is a strong value too, similar to Keegan I want to throw a little pizza money on the outright but a full unit on the T20.

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John Alesia