Anthony P's NHL Model May 19, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR MAY 19, 2023

Honestly, I tried my best to keep my eyes open and catch all of last night's game, but it was just a no-go. Though, I was stoked to see the Panthers snag a win. They're on a hot streak with their gameplay, and for anyone who thinks goaltending doesn't hold its weight in the NHL these days, well, think again! Bob's been the difference since his comeback!

Now, let's talk about the upcoming Stars and Golden Knights series. It promises to be a nail-biter. The Stars have a clean sweep against the Golden Knights this season, going 3-0. But hey, this is playoff territory, and regular-season stats can take a back seat!

Since May 16th, the betting line's been increasingly tilting in favor of the Stars. There's been some smart money played on this game, but the bulk of it, coming in at +117 and +112, backs Dallas. The Stars have been my dark horses for the series, but Oettinger's fluctuating performance has me biting my nails.

Taking a look back at the 2023 NBA and NHL series, it's clear that some teams just haven't brought their A-game after a game 7 win. Dallas and Vegas have had three showdowns this season, with the Stars emerging victorious each time. The Golden Knights' offense barely got off the ground against the Stars, failing to score in the first game, managing two goals in the second, and scoring one goal in the third. Oettinger was between the pipes for the Stars in all three games, putting on a solid performance against the Golden Knights. So yeah, the spotlight's on Oettinger here.

Both netminders have kept their GAA under 2.50 this season, with an SV% north of .915. Dallas ranks 3rd in xGA/60, with Vegas at 10th, but come playoff time, Dallas shoots up to 1st with an xGA/60 of 2.15, while Vegas trails in 3rd at 2.47.

If I had to call it, I'd say take the under 5.5.

Good luck today!

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