NCAAF Bet of the Day | B1G-Time Matchup | November 18, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

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OVERALL RECORD: 30-27-1, +2.35u
RECAP: This past weekend, we had four games and went 2-2 on our plays, but absolutely smashed the highlighted bet of the day. Michigan was in control of that game nearly the entire time, and they covered with ease against a fraudulent Penn State team – and despite their head coach being out, they still showed why they’re one of the best teams in the nation.

Staying in the B1G for this week’s game as well, as it seems like this conference has a bit more parody within it, and is easier to call out. Like, death, taxes, and Iowa unders, for example. But today, we head to Ohio to take a chance on this stellar Ohio State defense against an offense that has been inept at times this season.

Our Sharp App Money Handles tool, which has been absolutely on fire as of late, has this game as major money implications. While only 41% of the bets are on the under in this game, making it against the public, nearly 93% of all total money is on this side - giving us a major difference of 52% between the bets placed and the money handles in this game. 

And truthfully, this under is warranted; the line began at 48.5, and the public made it creep up and up, and we’re hitting it at its’ peak. 51.5 is the highest it will go, and we can still get it at -110. Ohio State has an absolutely stunning defense, and this Minnesota team has followed suit of every team that they’ve played, going 5-5 when it comes to O/U. Ohio State’s record on Unders is 8-2, making it one of the most consistent bets in college football. 

This Ohio State defense has held every single team they’ve played under 20 total points scored this season, and this Minnesota offense doesn’t have the firepower to break through that threshold. They average a measly 167 yards per game through the air, and rank near dead last in total yards per game in the whole league. This OSU defense allows the third-least amount of offense per game in the NCAAF, and they are a menacing sight for opposing rushing offenses; while Minnesota loves to run the ball, they’re facing a top-30 rushing defense, and an even more scary passing defense. 

Ohio State is going to make QB Kaliakmanis struggle mightily today, as they are the best in the league in lowest QBR, and yards/attempt. And this game could get ugly, too - last game, McCord got taken out because it was so out of hand already. But this OSU offense also isn’t the brightest light in the B1G, as they are the ranked near the bottom of the league in rushing, and have a good passing attack. Lucky for our under, defense is Minnesota’s calling card, having a dominating rushing defense, while also having a league-average passing defense. 

While Ohio State is definitely going to put up points, don’t be surprised if this game is closer than you think. Let’s take the under to be safe, because this Ohio State defense is suffocating.

PICK: Minnesota/Ohio State u51.5

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