MLB Bet of the Day | June 10, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 92-91-4, -4.39u
RECAP: We keep hitting on plus-money plays, and that means that we are slowly going to deteriorate this hole that we’re in. We not only smashed on the Guardians moneyline (a line that we didn’t overthink and just played according to the tools) but we also hit on our Team Total Parlay, which hit at +109, making us 2-0 on the day. We’re just over four units in the hole, and we’re climbing back out of a rough month. 

June 10th, 2024

Dylan Cease is a name that proceeds itself, and he’s up tonight against the Oakland Athletics, who are among the worst bats in the MLB over the last stretch of games. 

The A’s are throwing Joey Estes today, who has started five games in his season so far, and has had a stark contrast between his home and away splits. At home, he’s been incredibly formidable, but on the road, it’s been a different story; he’s allowing a WHIP of 1.32 over three starts and has allowed ten runs over thirteen innings. He actually shows a lot of promise as a starter though when you look at his advanced stats, but this is a case of an offense being red-hot. 

The Padres are finally coming into their offensive form, scoring nearly six runs per game over their last ten games and making loud contact throughout. Over their last ten, they’re hitting .292 and getting on base nearly 36% of the time, and they’ve eclipsed seven runs in four out of their last ten games. This O/U suggests that the starting pitcher on the other side may be dominant today. 

And there’s no wonder why he may be dominant, because this A’s team has lost all mojo. Over their last ten games, they’re hitting .199 and only scoring less than three runs per game. And I haven’t even had the opportunity to talk about Dylan Cease yet. 

Cease is a monster, and has been excelling in strikeouts over this season. While he’s been a lot more detrimental at home this season, he’s absolutely walloped inferior teams this season, including allowing only one run to the Rockies over seven innings and  he’s shut the Cubs out through 13 innings. He’s gotten hit by some potent offenses, but this is not a potent offense that we’re talking about, and he’s absolutely dominated this lineup so far in his career. Through 48 plate appearances, he’s holding A’s batters to .166 xBA lifetime.

The Padres have proved that they can score in a hurry over the past ten games, and we’re seeing a four-run difference between these two teams in average scoring over their last ten. I love the Fathers tonight – the Sharp App AI has a 70% chance of them winning. I’ll take those chances. 

PICK: San Diego Padres -1.5 

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