MLB Bet of the Day | July 29, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 176-171-7, -1.51u
RECAP: Yesterday’s slate was a whacky one and we decided to keep the slate small, going with the Mariners to win in our MLB of the Day – which was an absolute banger. Any time that the White Sox have the opportunity to blow it, they do – and Garrett Crochet is clearly on an innings limit as we end the season, which is something to keep in mind. On to today, with a small-ish slate to find value on!  

July 29th, 2024

There’s a pitcher in the MLB that has regressed in nearly every single statistical category so far this season after starting hot, and he’s a member of the New York Mets – and he’s my arch nemesis, as I feel like we never can hit when we’re against him, and he always gets shelled when we’re for him. Let’s take our chances today, as I LOVE the Twins starter and their bullpen. 

Woods-Richardson is one of the most underrated pitchers in the league, and he’s been brilliant this season – he doesn’t walk anyone, and he gets batters to chase pitches that are even balls. Even on the road this season, which he pitches “worse”, he’s allowed only 17 earned runs over 44 innings pitched and is allowing 1.22 WHIP, which has regressed over his last few starts. He’s brilliant at night, too – where he hosts a WHIP of 1.07. 

Quintana has very similar numbers to Woods-Richardson except at home this season, with a WHIP of 1.50 when he’s pitching at night. And don’t get me wrong, he’s been pretty good in July, but this is a long season, and his regression is bound to happen tonight. Plus, we’re seeing some really nice value on the Twins today on the Sharp App Money Handles tool – we’re seeing only 26% of the moneyline bets come in on this underdog, while 54% of the money is focused in this direction, giving us a difference of 28%. I would personally like to see more money here, but we’ve got to take this value while it’s here. 

The Mets are middle-of-the-road against the AL, and while the Twins haven’t had much success as an away underdog this season, they’re right near .500 on the season. They’ve been getting on base nearly 33% of the time over their past ten games and are hitting nine points higher than the Mets over that stretch, including being super patient at the plate – they’re walking four times a game over their last ten. That’s really solid, especially for a pitcher who will walk you if given the chance.

Let’s rock with Minnesota today and the Money Handles tool. I love this play even more at plus-money! 

PICK: Minnesota Twins ML

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