MLB Bet of the Day | April 2, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 7-9, -2.11u
RECAP: There’s a new leaf that we were looking for, as we profit once again in the MLB and turn a corner that hopefully will never be turned back on. Our MLB of the Day was a complete loss as the Washington bullpen put me in shambles, but my PRO picks both won fairly easily as we hit a parlay and a total between the Rays and Rangers. Another slate today, let’s hammer some plays. 

April 2nd, 2024

The Yankees and Diamondbacks are in a series that was first dominated by the Yankees last night, and holds a potential World Series preview in the palm of their hands. 

The Diamondbacks, while taking the loss yesterday, may have one of the most impressive pitching staffs in baseball. From their starter today (Zac Gallen) to their injured list (Eduardo Rodriguez) to their new acquisitions (Jordan Montgomery), they’re imposing their will against batters. Tonight, we’re going to see Gallen take on Nestor Cortes, who was the Yankees’ Opening Day starter. 

Cortes pitched well in his season debut, and is posed to perform well again in what the sports books are deeming to be a pretty tightly contested game. Nasty Nestor struggled on the road last season, but he’s looked to have (possibly) turned a corner and could be a nice piece for the Yankees moving forward, and in today’s game. Yesterday, the Snakes were held to just two runs, despite many opportunities to cash in runs; this Yankees bullpen is elite, and they really didn’t burn a lot of arms in yesterday’s contest. 

But the real prize here is Zac Gallen, who, in 72 plate appearances against this Yankees lineup, has absolutely put them in fits. He has an xBA of .191 and xwOBA of .258, which is absolutely elite. These batters simply don’t get on base at the rate they do against other pitchers, and players like Juan Soto see that discrepancy; he’s 3 for 19 against Gallen in his career, including four strikeouts. 

This line has been moving between 8.5 and 9, and Coach Anthony’s model has significant value on this under in this game, with a projected total under 8 runs in this game. Let’s take a little bit of the juice and ride with it, as we’re going to be relying on these pitchers to be locked in for today’s contest, and for the scoring droughts for both of these teams to continue for one more game. 

Let’s take the under nine in this game that’s later today, and line movement should work our way after getting this pick in early. 

PICK: New York / Arizona under 9

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