Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers Matchup Preview - August 16th, 2022


Los Angeles's first baseman Freddie Freeman looks to continue his strong season as he takes on Christian Yelich and the Brewers. This season Freddie Freeman is batting .321 with 16 home runs, 80 runs, 73 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases. Today he's projected to bat 5th in the lineup with a THE BAT X projection of .204 Avg, .313 wOBA and .17 HRs. On the Brewers side, Christian Yelich has shined this year (.250 Avg, 8 HRs, 71 Rs, 35 RBIs, & 16 SBs). He's projected to bat 5th and THE BAT X projects his average performance today as a .316 wOBA, and .21 HRs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

  • Ryan Pepiot has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 7.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

  • Joey Gallo has a high pull rate on his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 7th-deepest RF fences today.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

  • Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Brandon Woodruff has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 61.1% of the time, grading out in the 93rd percentile.

  • Keston Hiura has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.5-mph average to last season's 97.9-mph EV.

  • The Milwaukee Brewers have done a bad job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 11.3° angle is among the lowest in the majors since the start of last season (#27 overall).

Betting Trends

  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+11.90 Units / 24% ROI)

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 38 of their last 53 games (+22.70 Units / 35% ROI)

  • Jace Peterson has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 62% ROI)