Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Matchup Preview - October 23rd, 2022


Today's contest between the Yankees and the Astros pits The Sharp Model's 50th ranked SP (Lance McCullers) against the 35th ranked SP (Nestor Cortes). The rundown on McCullers tells us that he leans on his sinker fastball 24.5% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a slider (27.0%). Cortes is a four-seam guy (43.9%) who brings a cut-fastball as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that McCullers deserves something like a 3.49 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 2.27. On that front, Cortes's ERA sits at 2.44 and his FIP at 3.13.

Houston Astros Insights

  • Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Lance McCullers Jr. has relied on his secondary offerings 9.6% more often this season (75.5%) than he did last year (65.9%).

  • The New York Yankees don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker is guaranteed to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever the whole game.

  • The Houston Astros projected batting order profiles as the 2nd-best on the slate today.

New York Yankees Insights

  • The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the best of the day.

  • Matt Carpenter is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Houston (#2-best of all teams today).

  • The New York Yankees bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in the majors, via The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+11.35 Units / 17% ROI)

  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 92 of their last 161 games (+26.40 Units / 15% ROI)

  • Matt Carpenter has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games at home (+9.10 Units / 66% ROI)