Houston Astros @ Cleveland Indians Matchup Preview - August 4th, 2022


Right-hander Justin Verlander is expected to start today for Houston, while right-hander Zach Plesac gets the nod at home for Cleveland. Verlander enters this contest with a 1.81 ERA, backed up by a 3.04 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Plesac, meanwhile, has a 4.30 FIP underlying his 4.33 ERA. The last time Justin Verlander was on the bump, he recorded the win as the Astros defeated the Mariners 11-1. He left allowing 1 earned run and recording 5 strikeouts with 1 walk. Plesac's last start was against the Rays, when he recorded the loss as the Guardians were defeated 4-6. Over 5 innings pitched, he allowed 5 earned runs with 7 hits. He also recorded 7 strikeouts with 2 walks.

Houston Astros Insights

  • Justin Verlander has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in this game.

  • The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

  • The Houston Astros (19.7 K%, via THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today.

Cleveland Indians Insights

  • Zach Plesac’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2211 rpm) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (2141 rpm).

  • THE BAT X projects Austin Hedges in the 0th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

  • The Cleveland Guardians bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in the game, via THE BAT.

Betting Trends

  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 84 games (+9.85 Units / 9% ROI)

  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 93 games (+19.20 Units / 17% ROI)

  • Framber Valdez has hit the Earned Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 55% ROI)