Anthony P's WNBA Model June 21, 2023

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This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR JUNE 21, 2023

Yesterday, the Dallas squad amped up their game, smashing expectations and leading to a less tighter game than predicted. The game's score ended up ducking under the total, just as we forecasted, but there was a surprising late surge from 168 to 173.5 by the time the first whistle blew.

And who would have thought? The Suns just can't seem to rack up enough points after a win. They nabbed a victory by a margin of 6, falling short of the -8.5 expected spread. Despite my initial bet on them pulling off a 10-point lead or more, the trends beg to differ. They are now 1-7 ATS after a win.

And let's not forget about the Lynx's domination over the Sparks, tallying up their fourth victory against them. Despite LA being a hot pick for the sharps and the betting line shifting from -4.5 to -6, they ended up losing by 6. That's the unpredictability of the WNBA for you.

Breaking down ATS trends:

Underdogs are running the show at 59.4%, with away dogs at 55% and home dogs at a surprising 66.7%. Games are staying under 52.5% of the time.

Today, we're looking at a David vs. Goliath matchup. The Aces have been on a roll, boasting a 4-1 ATS record in their last five clashes and covering the -17.5 last August with a whopping 37-point victory in Phoenix. They've been heavy favorites in their last two games, cruising past their opponents by 31 and 33 points respectively.

Interestingly, the line for today's face-off opened at -19 but has been dialed back to -18.5 at Betonline, while other markets have stuck with -19.5. It's crucial to cross-check the Betonline line against other key players like Pinnacle and Bookmaker, both listing it at -19. Betonline, Pinnacle, and Bookmaker have capped their max bets at $2,300, $1,500, and a surprising $125, respectively.

My model's prediction sits at -17, so the -19.5 feels a tad inflated. Despite the Aces' shaky 1-4 ATS record in their last five away games, they've managed an impressive 8-3 ATS record when playing after two days of rest. The Mercury, on the other hand, have been struggling at home and overall, sharing the same 1-4 ATS record in their last five games in both categories.

The over has been hit in 5 of the Aces' last 6 road games, suggesting a potential value spot with an 8-point difference. However, for the total to go over, Phoenix will need to chalk up more than 75 points, a feat they haven't managed in their last three games. So, I'll be sitting out on the total.

As for the spread, it's a hefty number for an away team, but the Aces have shown their prowess on both sides of the court and have been serving up blowouts all season. The Mercury, even at full strength, hasn't been as impressive, and now they could be missing Griner and Taurasi. The line is set the way it is for a reason.

MODEL LEAN: OVER 165.5

Good luck

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