Anthony P's WNBA Model Aug 4, 2023

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This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR Aug 4, 2023

Alright, sports betting buddies, we've got an electrifying update in the world of WNBA wagering. As we saw last night, another home underdog brought home the bacon, boosting the season record to a rock-solid 32-21-1 (60.4%). Now that's some serious underdog action!

Tonight, we're squaring off with two home underdogs, Fever and Lynx, but our model's got its heart set on the Lynx. The bookies have Liberty strutting in at -7.5 in raw projections, but they've audaciously popped the line to -10.5, throwing home-court advantage to the wind. The Lynx, boast a home record of 6-8 and are 15-11-1 against the spread (ATS) for the season.

Now, my margin model has Liberty at -11.15, suggesting the bookies are bending more towards that than their own figures. The Lynx are on a roll with a 3-1 straight-up (SU) and 4-0 ATS record in their last four games. Meanwhile, the Liberty are scraping the barrel at 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games, failing to cover in three straight.

Looking at these stats, snagging the points with the Lynx seems like a surefire slam dunk. But we've all seen this play out before, right? When the odds seem too good to be true, the team often ends up getting blown out of the water.

The Liberty are rolling in with a strong 20-6 season record, comfortably sitting on the second seed and a 10-2 SU on the road. However, they've struggled recently with a 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and a 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Lynx, on the other hand, despite their 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home games, are sizzling hot with a 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

One thing's for sure - we're in for a high-scoring affair, with the over standing at 11-5 for Liberty's last 16 and 4-1 for Lynx's last five games. Liberty has a shaky track record against the Lynx, struggling with a 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Minnesota and 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 overall.

While it's undeniable that the Liberty are the heavyweights here, their knack for letting teams stick around has been their Achilles heel. Despite their winning record, they've failed to cover in 9 of their last 11 games. The Lynx, on the other hand, are fighting tooth and nail for their playoff spot, and if last week's 14.5-point underdog victory against the Liberty on the road is anything to go by, this line looks pretty damn sweet.

Might as well take a look at the other home underdog.

Let's lay down the facts. The Sun are on fire, with 13 victories in their last 18 games, and currently bask in the glow of the third seed. They boast a 10-3 straight-up record on the road. Now, that's hot!

On the flip side, the Fever seems to be losing its temperature. They've had a rough ride, with 13 losses in their last 16 games, and a downright chilly four out of five in their most recent matches. They're lagging 3.5 games behind a playoff spot, feeling the cold of the winter coming.

Let's dive into some trends, the bread and butter of any savvy bettor. The Sun is shining bright with an 18-7 record against the spread (ATS) in their last 25 road games, and they've blazed a 4-0 ATS trail in their last four Friday face-offs. The Fever, however, are still looking for a cure, with a 2-6 ATS record in their last eight Friday fiestas, and a shoddy 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

The "under" bettors have had a field day with these teams recently. The under is 5-2 in Sun's last seven overall, and 4-0 in Fever's last four overall. The Sun has also been shining over the Fever in head-to-head match-ups, with a 15-7 ATS record in the last 22 meetings.

The Fever has shown sparks of competitiveness this season, but they've been torched more often than not when facing top-tier teams. Their defense has been leaking points like a busted faucet during this losing streak. As I've been preaching all year, the Sun is one of the WNBA's most consistent teams. They're a bettor's dream, covering spreads on the road like they're laying down sunblock on a summer's day.

Given this info, laying the chalk with the Sun on the road feels more like a day at the beach than a risky bet. The Fever, even with their home-court advantage, just doesn't have the consistency to compete. They might be burning bright at moments, but the Sun looks set to eclipse them in this showdown.

MODEL Bets: Minnesota +11

Anthony's leans: Minnesota over 167.5, Minnesota +11, Sun under 160

Good luck

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