Under the Knife with TheSharpSurgeon (4/21/22)

Buffalo/New Jersey UNDER 7 -125 (CAESARS)

(A) Buffalo Sabres (29-38-11) vs. (H) New Jersey Devils (28-42-7)
7:00 PM EST

Play:
Buffalo/New Jersey UNDER 7 -125 (1 Unit) [CAESARS]

Model Prediction:

The New Jersey Devils have a forecast 56% chance of winning with an over/under of 3 Goals.

New Jersey Devils 2 – Buffalo Sabres 1


Vegas Prediction/Line
:

The New Jersey Devils have a forecast 57% chance of winning with an over/under of 7 Goals.

New Jersey Devils 4 – Buffalo Sabres 3

Previous Games:

(A) New Jersey Devils 4 – (H) Buffalo Sabres 3 [12/29/21]

(H) New Jersey Devils 2 – (A) Buffalo Sabres 1 [10/23/21]
(Overtime)

Expected Goalies:

BUF: Craig Anderson, 16-12-2, 3.15 GAA, .896 SV %
NJ: Andrew Hammond 4-2-1, 3.7 GAA, .889 SV %

Schedule:

Buffalo: 3 Day Rest

New Jersey: 2 Day Rest

Assumed Status
:

(BUF) A. Oglevie, C, OUT
(NJ) R. Graves, D, OUT

Opening Line: NJ -132 / 6.5

Current Line: NJ -145 / 7

Public Consensus: Buffalo 55% - New Jersey 45%

Summary: We use Sharp's exclusive prediction model as a baseline.

The New Jersey Devils have a forecast 56% chance of winning with an over/under of 3 Goals. With a total line at Caesars of 7 (-125), this is a whopping 4 goal predicted difference.

Both teams are in the bottom 2 of the East Division and have no playoff aspirations.

Buffalo will look to defend their pride however and have been spending a more concentrated effort on their defensive end, attempting to limit their goals against.

Buffalo is averaging 2.77 Goals Per Game.
Buffalo is averaging 29.7 Shots Per Game.

Andrew Hammond is coming off of a 42 Saves win (3-2) against the Las Vegas Golden Knights. Look for him to continue the momentum to try and complete the series sweep over the Sabres.

Additionally, New Jersey has been meshing well on the defensive end.

If the model plays out, we should expect a boring, grind-out game, with a lackluster offense from both teams. With limited shooting opportunities and above-average goaltending performances as of late, the under 7 goal total looks to be a lucrative bet.

This analysis was provided by TheSharpSurgeon. TheSharpSurgeon is currently +8.47 Units with a 15% ROI on a recorded 25-33-2 sample. You can follow and track TheSharpSurgeon's bets on The Sharp App available on the Apple App Store and on Google play. Visit Sharp.App for more details.